NBA games

SAC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
123–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC33382428123
CHA2831211898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CHA
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 32 25 6 3
Domantas Sabonis S 28 24 10 7
Malik Monk 30 20 4 4
De'Aaron Fox S 28 19 1 3
JaVale McGee 5 8 7 0
Alex Len 16 8 10 1
Trey Lyles 21 8 5 2
Harrison Barnes S 22 6 2 1
Keon Ellis 9 3 1 1
Juan Toscano-Anderson 17 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 34 24 7 6
Terry Rozier S 32 22 4 2
Brandon Miller S 28 15 1 2
Nick Smith Jr. 25 11 3 1
Nick Richards S 26 8 9 3
James Bouknight 20 8 0 1
Bryce McGowens S 10 4 2 1
JT Thor 21 2 5 0
Nate Mensah 22 2 4 1
Ish Smith 16 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
15%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Nick Richards CHA
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
6%
9 Bryce McGowens CHA
6%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 25.8 13.4 9.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.5 4.5 6.0
3 Terry Rozier CHA 24.9 4.3 6.7
4 Miles Bridges CHA 22.3 6.7 3.8
5 Malik Monk SAC 17.2 3.3 6.2
6 Keegan Murray SAC 15.9 5.6 1.7
7 Brandon Miller CHA 14.3 3.8 2.7
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.4 2.6 1.2
9 Nick Richards CHA 10.1 9.2 1.4
10 Trey Lyles SAC 8.6 4.1 1.5
11 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 8.3 2.2 1.6
12 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.0 2.9 2.1
13 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.4 2.2 1.5
14 Ish Smith CHA 6.1 2.1 3.9
15 Keon Ellis SAC 5.4 2.0 1.8
16 Frank Ntilikina CHA 5.0 1.8 2.3
17 Chris Duarte SAC 4.6 2.0 1.2
18 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 3.9 2.3 0.9
19 James Bouknight CHA 3.9 1.5 0.9
20 JaVale McGee SAC 3.6 2.0 0.8
21 Alex Len SAC 3.6 3.9 1.4
22 JT Thor CHA 3.6 2.4 0.6
23 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.5 1.5 1.1
24 Colby Jones SAC 3.3 1.6 0.7
25 Nate Mensah CHA 3.3 3.1 0.6
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 2.6 1.8 0.7
27 Leaky Black CHA 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.