NBA games

MIN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
120–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIN272632269120
BOS3222253216127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home BOS
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 46 29 6 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 44 25 13 6
Naz Reid 37 19 10 3
Kyle Anderson S 39 17 8 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 40 15 4 3
Jordan McLaughlin 17 6 2 0
Jaden McDaniels S 24 5 1 1
Troy Brown Jr. 8 2 1 1
Shake Milton 9 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 42 45 4 2
Jaylen Brown S 43 35 11 3
Jrue Holiday S 40 12 5 4
Derrick White S 43 9 6 6
Al Horford S 38 9 8 5
Luke Kornet 18 8 5 0
Sam Hauser 18 6 4 0
Payton Pritchard 16 3 1 1
Oshae Brissett 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
17%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
16%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
4 Jrue Holiday BOS
12%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
6 Derrick White BOS
11%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
8 Al Horford BOS
7%
9 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
10 Kyle Anderson MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
9%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.1 5.3 5.6
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.0 7.7 5.5
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.5 5.9 4.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 21.8 7.5 3.5
5 Derrick White BOS 18.4 4.3 5.5
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.4 5.9 5.0
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.6 3.3 1.7
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.7 5.4 1.7
9 Al Horford BOS 9.3 6.4 2.9
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.8 3.4 3.0
11 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.8 3.7 3.4
12 Sam Hauser BOS 5.7 3.1 1.0
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.5 1.8 1.8
14 Luke Kornet BOS 5.1 3.8 1.1
15 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.9 3.5 0.7
16 Shake Milton MIN 4.6 1.2 1.1
17 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 1.5 0.7
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.2 3.8 0.6
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.6 1.7 2.0
20 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 2.5 0.5
21 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.2 1.4 0.8
22 Dalano Banton BOS 3.1 1.7 0.6
23 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.7 1.2 0.6
24 Daishen Nix MIN 2.6 0.7 0.9
25 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.3 1.4 0.4
26 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.8 0.9 0.6
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.