NBA games

TOR @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
131–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR24293642131
LAL28233744132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home LAL
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 40 26 3 6
Pascal Siakam S 32 25 4 3
RJ Barrett S 35 23 10 5
Immanuel Quickley S 26 21 5 5
Gary Trent Jr. 24 14 1 1
Dennis Schroder 30 10 2 6
Thaddeus Young S 29 10 5 4
Chris Boucher 14 2 7 1
Jontay Porter 10 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 40 41 11 6
LeBron James S 35 22 5 12
Christian Wood 24 14 4 1
Cam Reddish S 23 13 1 0
D'Angelo Russell 17 11 1 5
Taurean Prince S 34 11 4 0
Austin Reaves S 32 11 3 7
Max Christie 18 6 4 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 18 3 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
17%
2 LeBron James LAL
17%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
16%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Pascal Siakam TOR
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
8 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
9 Cam Reddish LAL
6%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
6%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 27.6 11.2 4.5
2 LeBron James LAL 26.5 6.4 8.9
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 25.3 5.7 5.5
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.0 7.3 6.0
5 RJ Barrett TOR 19.6 6.0 3.2
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.4 3.1 3.7
7 Austin Reaves LAL 17.7 3.9 6.0
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 14.9 3.4 6.5
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 13.4 3.4 2.2
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.7 2.5 5.8
11 Taurean Prince LAL 11.0 3.4 2.4
12 Cam Reddish LAL 7.9 2.5 2.2
13 Christian Wood LAL 7.7 4.7 1.3
14 Chris Boucher TOR 6.5 4.5 0.8
15 Max Christie LAL 5.8 3.1 1.2
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.9 3.5 1.2
17 Skylar Mays LAL 4.1 1.3 1.8
18 Jontay Porter TOR 4.0 2.8 0.6
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.9 1.4 0.8
20 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.7 1.7 1.0
21 Ron Harper Jr. TOR 3.7 1.4 1.0
22 Garrett Temple TOR 2.8 1.2 0.7
23 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.7 1.6 0.4
24 Dylan Windler LAL 2.6 0.9 0.7
25 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.3 1.0 0.7
26 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.2 1.2 0.6
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.