NBA games

MEM @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
120–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29393517120
DAL22313020103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DAL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 39 32 9 4
Marcus Smart S 21 23 4 1
Luke Kennard S 23 14 5 4
Xavier Tillman 28 14 11 2
Ziaire Williams 27 14 4 0
David Roddy 25 11 5 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 30 6 6 6
John Konchar 25 4 7 3
Bismack Biyombo S 18 2 2 4
GG Jackson 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 40 33 8 4
Luka Doncic S 36 31 6 6
Derrick Jones Jr. S 36 11 4 2
Jaden Hardy 19 10 0 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 30 9 3 2
Dwight Powell S 22 4 4 3
A.J. Lawson 5 3 2 0
Seth Curry 10 2 0 0
Grant Williams 7 0 0 0
Josh Green S 23 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dwight Powell · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Dwight Powell makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
2 Marcus Smart MEM
13%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
4 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
5 Dwight Powell DAL
11%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
10%
7 Xavier Tillman MEM
10%
8 Josh Green DAL
10%
9 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 32.8 7.8 10.4
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.5 5.0 6.4
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.8 6.0 4.5
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.4 4.0 2.3
5 Marcus Smart MEM 17.2 3.3 4.2
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.4 4.8 1.4
7 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.5 3.0 1.9
8 Luke Kennard MEM 8.3 2.7 1.8
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.0 6.5 2.1
10 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.9 2.7 1.3
11 Grant Williams DAL 7.8 4.1 1.7
12 Josh Green DAL 7.6 3.2 2.8
13 Santi Aldama MEM 7.1 4.3 1.4
14 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.3 6.2 1.2
15 Dwight Powell DAL 6.0 4.6 1.7
16 David Roddy MEM 5.6 2.4 1.4
17 Seth Curry DAL 5.6 2.1 1.1
18 Xavier Tillman MEM 4.7 4.5 1.0
19 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.7 1.6 0.8
20 John Konchar MEM 4.5 3.7 1.2
21 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.5 3.0 1.2
22 Brandon Williams DAL 4.1 1.0 0.8
23 Jake LaRavia MEM 3.8 1.7 0.8
24 Markieff Morris DAL 3.1 1.8 0.9
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.0 3.3 0.5
26 GG Jackson MEM 2.9 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.