NBA games

POR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
84–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2219202384
NY38253415112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NY
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 28 21 2 0
Anfernee Simons S 27 12 4 3
Kris Murray 16 9 3 1
Shaedon Sharpe 22 9 4 4
Scoot Henderson S 25 8 3 4
Duop Reath S 21 7 6 0
Toumani Camara S 26 5 6 2
Ibou Badji 27 4 7 3
Rayan Rupert 12 4 5 1
Justin Minaya 12 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 29 23 4 0
Julius Randle S 32 20 7 8
Quentin Grimes 21 17 4 1
Miles McBride 22 16 2 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 19 13 4 2
Jalen Brunson S 26 12 3 7
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 5 14 3
Josh Hart 26 2 7 4
Malachi Flynn 4 2 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 20 2 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Julius Randle NY
14%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
4 Jerami Grant POR
11%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
7 OG Anunoby NY
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Duop Reath POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
17%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 29.6 8.8 4.4
2 Jalen Brunson NY 28.0 4.2 8.4
3 Anfernee Simons POR 24.1 4.1 6.0
4 Jerami Grant POR 20.6 3.6 3.7
5 Scoot Henderson POR 16.1 3.8 6.2
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR 15.9 3.5 5.1
7 Donte DiVincenzo NY 14.5 4.0 2.7
8 OG Anunoby NY 13.7 4.0 2.6
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR 12.9 3.8 2.1
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.3 10.3 3.0
11 Josh Hart NY 9.5 7.3 3.0
12 Duop Reath POR 9.1 4.7 1.2
13 Toumani Camara POR 8.0 5.2 1.2
14 Evan Fournier NY 7.2 1.9 0.9
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.9 2.9 1.2
16 Quentin Grimes NY 5.8 2.2 1.1
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.2 3.1 0.7
18 Kris Murray POR 4.8 2.8 0.9
19 Miles McBride NY 3.9 1.0 1.4
20 Malachi Flynn NY 3.6 2.0 2.0
21 Ibou Badji POR 3.3 3.6 0.6
22 Justin Minaya POR 2.9 1.5 0.8
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.7 1.7 0.6
24 Rayan Rupert POR 2.2 1.0 0.6
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.7 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.