NBA games

MIN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
113–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33342323113
ORL1621292692

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home ORL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 28 6 5
Rudy Gobert S 34 21 12 1
Jaden McDaniels S 35 15 9 1
Naz Reid 21 13 10 2
Mike Conley S 31 11 3 10
Kyle Anderson 21 11 1 3
Anthony Edwards S 26 6 4 3
Jordan McLaughlin 15 4 0 5
Shake Milton 2 4 0 0
Troy Brown Jr. 2 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moritz Wagner 31 21 8 2
Jalen Suggs S 27 20 5 2
Paolo Banchero S 35 18 2 3
Trevelin Queen 28 11 3 3
Caleb Houstan S 34 8 7 2
Markelle Fultz 13 4 3 2
Anthony Black 21 3 1 4
Chuma Okeke S 27 3 10 1
Goga Bitadze S 17 2 6 1
Cole Anthony 7 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
17%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Chuma Okeke ORL
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Caleb Houstan ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
73%
Jumper
14%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.8 5.4 5.2
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 28.1 7.8 6.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 21.5 7.7 3.2
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.0 3.6 2.8
5 Cole Anthony ORL 14.0 4.8 3.5
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.3 11.3 1.3
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.7 3.0 1.5
8 Mike Conley MIN 11.6 2.5 5.8
9 Markelle Fultz ORL 10.3 3.6 3.8
10 Naz Reid MIN 10.1 4.7 1.4
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.4 5.6 1.4
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.4 5.2 1.6
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.2 6.4 1.3
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.8 3.7 3.2
15 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.6 2.0 1.0
16 Anthony Black ORL 6.4 2.7 1.8
17 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.9 1.7 1.6
18 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.4 1.7 1.6
19 Joe Ingles ORL 5.3 2.2 2.8
20 Chuma Okeke ORL 4.3 2.9 0.9
21 Shake Milton MIN 3.9 1.0 1.0
22 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.5 1.7 1.5
23 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.5 1.1 0.6
24 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.1 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.