NBA games

SAC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
131–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC29393033131
DET47183015110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DET
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 38 37 10 13
Keegan Murray S 35 32 5 2
De'Aaron Fox S 33 26 3 4
Malik Monk 28 20 2 9
Trey Lyles 32 6 8 3
Alex Len 10 6 3 0
Kevin Huerter S 29 4 5 5
Davion Mitchell 1 0 1 0
Juan Toscano-Anderson 14 0 6 1
Harrison Barnes S 14 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bojan Bogdanovic S 33 26 5 2
Jaden Ivey S 33 22 5 6
Alec Burks 20 16 3 1
Jalen Duren S 24 16 10 3
Joe Harris 9 9 1 0
Kevin Knox II 20 8 2 1
Killian Hayes S 31 4 4 7
James Wiseman 24 4 5 1
Isaiah Livers S 15 3 1 2
Marcus Sasser 19 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Layup (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Jalen Duren DET
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
8%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
9 Isaiah Livers DET
7%
10 Chris Duarte SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.7 4.5 5.8
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 25.6 13.8 9.3
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 19.8 4.6 3.5
4 Jaden Ivey DET 18.5 5.1 5.2
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.2 11.3 2.3
6 Malik Monk SAC 15.1 2.9 6.0
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.3 5.3 1.6
8 Alec Burks DET 12.3 2.9 1.7
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.3 2.7 1.4
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.3 5.6 2.2
11 Kevin Knox II DET 8.5 2.4 1.3
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.5 3.4 1.3
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.0 3.6 0.6
14 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.7 2.2 1.7
15 James Wiseman DET 6.6 5.0 1.0
16 Isaiah Livers DET 6.1 2.6 1.3
17 Keon Ellis SAC 5.5 1.9 2.1
18 Marcus Sasser DET 5.4 1.5 1.4
19 Killian Hayes DET 5.3 2.6 4.7
20 Ausar Thompson DET 5.2 3.7 1.7
21 Chris Duarte SAC 4.9 2.1 1.2
22 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.3 2.4 0.9
23 JaVale McGee SAC 3.9 2.1 0.8
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 1.1 0.6
25 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.3 1.2 1.2
26 Alex Len SAC 2.9 3.4 1.4
27 Joe Harris DET 2.6 0.9 0.7
28 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.