NBA games

PHX @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
111–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX31322820111
LAC34373037138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 35 30 7 2
Devin Booker S 34 20 0 5
Bradley Beal S 35 15 3 2
Eric Gordon 25 12 1 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 21 8 3 2
Grayson Allen S 31 8 3 2
Chimezie Metu 8 4 2 0
Josh Okogie 18 4 1 2
Jordan Goodwin 5 4 0 0
Keita Bates-Diop 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 31 25 7 0
James Harden S 30 19 7 10
Ivica Zubac S 28 19 8 3
Kawhi Leonard S 32 17 3 2
Terance Mann S 28 14 5 3
Norman Powell 25 14 5 1
Russell Westbrook 15 9 2 7
Amir Coffey 23 9 2 0
Daniel Theis 14 6 3 3
Brandon Boston 5 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 5-foot hook shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bradley Beal PHX
13%
2 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
12%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
7 Paul George LAC
9%
8 James Harden LAC
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
40%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.3 6.0 6.5
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.9 6.4 3.6
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.9 4.0 7.6
4 Paul George LAC 22.9 4.7 3.9
5 James Harden LAC 20.9 4.9 9.8
6 Bradley Beal PHX 17.7 4.3 4.5
7 Grayson Allen PHX 15.9 4.1 3.3
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.0 10.8 2.9
9 Norman Powell LAC 13.7 2.9 1.5
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.8 10.5 1.8
11 Eric Gordon PHX 10.8 2.3 1.4
12 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.8 5.9 4.0
13 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.3 4.6 1.2
14 Terance Mann LAC 7.8 2.6 1.4
15 Amir Coffey LAC 6.7 2.5 1.3
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.4 3.1 0.9
17 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.9 4.4 1.1
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.8 3.6 0.7
19 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.4 2.2 1.0
20 Josh Okogie PHX 4.4 2.0 1.7
21 Saben Lee PHX 4.3 1.6 1.3
22 Jordan Goodwin PHX 4.2 2.6 2.3
23 Brandon Boston LAC 4.0 1.2 0.6
24 Bones Hyland LAC 3.8 1.1 1.1
25 Kobe Brown LAC 3.6 1.3 0.8
26 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.1 0.9
27 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.3 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.