NBA games

UTAH @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
132–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH41362332132
MIL23234426116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 31 21 4 6
Lauri Markkanen S 32 21 14 2
Collin Sexton S 18 19 0 3
John Collins S 27 19 3 1
Keyonte George 22 19 6 4
Kelly Olynyk 17 13 6 3
Walker Kessler 21 8 6 0
Kris Dunn S 24 5 4 13
Simone Fontecchio S 32 5 3 1
Ochai Agbaji 15 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 25 10 11
Khris Middleton S 34 23 3 8
Malik Beasley S 24 17 4 2
Brook Lopez S 38 13 6 3
Bobby Portis 16 8 3 0
AJ Green 11 8 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 26 7 5 3
Pat Connaughton 22 6 2 1
Chris Livingston 15 6 2 0
MarJon Beauchamp 14 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
16%
2 Khris Middleton MIL
15%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
14%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
5 John Collins UTAH
9%
6 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
7 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
8%
8 Malik Beasley MIL
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
10 Keyonte George UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
39%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.2 11.8 8.5
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.4 8.4 2.9
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.5 3.5 5.7
4 Khris Middleton MIL 20.5 3.9 6.8
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.6 4.7 6.1
6 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 15.0 2.6 3.8
7 John Collins UTAH 13.2 6.5 1.6
8 Bobby Portis MIL 12.1 6.6 1.5
9 Keyonte George UTAH 12.0 2.7 3.2
10 Brook Lopez MIL 11.8 6.0 1.4
11 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 11.7 4.3 1.8
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 10.3 3.6 5.2
13 Malik Beasley MIL 10.3 3.0 1.4
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.7 7.3 0.9
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.3 3.9 5.3
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.3 3.3 1.5
17 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.2 2.7 1.1
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 6.0 2.6 1.1
19 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.7 1.6 2.0
20 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.9 2.7 0.6
21 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.9 5.4 0.9
22 AJ Green MIL 3.9 1.3 0.8
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.0 1.6 1.0
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.6 1.0 0.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.8 0.4
26 Robin Lopez MIL 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.