NBA games

HOU @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
113–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU27322331113
MIA34253229120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 39 32 5 7
Alperen Sengun S 33 22 10 2
Jalen Green S 31 11 5 6
Cam Whitmore 17 11 6 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 10 6 0
Jae'Sean Tate S 34 9 4 1
Aaron Holiday 23 8 4 1
Jeff Green 20 5 0 2
Amen Thompson 11 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 34 28 3 3
Bam Adebayo S 32 22 12 3
Kevin Love 23 15 7 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 39 14 4 4
Duncan Robinson 29 14 3 7
Josh Richardson 29 12 2 2
Kyle Lowry S 16 6 3 1
Nikola Jovic S 21 6 8 6
Haywood Highsmith 16 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jae'Sean Tate · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jae'Sean Tate makes 7-foot two point shot (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
12%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Jalen Green HOU
9%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
8 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
7%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
25%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.9 9.1 5.2
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.5 10.5 4.0
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.3 5.4 4.5
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.9 3.2 7.9
5 Jalen Green HOU 18.1 4.7 3.1
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.8 4.6 2.9
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.2 8.0 1.5
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.2 2.8 3.5
9 Kevin Love MIA 12.0 6.6 2.7
10 Josh Richardson MIA 10.6 3.2 2.5
11 Kyle Lowry MIA 10.5 2.8 3.7
12 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.8 2.4 0.7
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.8 2.2 1.6
14 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.1 3.5 1.2
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.1 3.5 1.7
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.0 2.1 1.0
17 Jamal Cain MIA 6.0 2.4 0.7
18 Amen Thompson HOU 5.6 3.4 1.8
19 Orlando Robinson MIA 4.7 3.3 1.2
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.6 3.3 0.7
21 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.0 2.2 0.9
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.5 1.3 0.7
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.1 2.4 0.7
24 Jock Landale HOU 2.9 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.