NBA games

OKC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
136–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC36313534136
WSH30313631128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home WSH
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 32 6 5
Chet Holmgren S 32 31 4 5
Jalen Williams S 34 21 7 10
Isaiah Joe 21 16 4 3
Aaron Wiggins 23 13 5 0
Josh Giddey S 26 9 6 9
Luguentz Dort S 27 7 3 1
Cason Wallace 24 5 2 2
Kenrich Williams 17 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 29 24 0 5
Kyle Kuzma S 37 22 15 5
Tyus Jones S 31 18 0 9
Deni Avdija S 33 17 4 4
Landry Shamet 16 15 2 1
Corey Kispert 18 11 1 2
Daniel Gafford S 26 9 9 1
Delon Wright 17 7 1 2
Bilal Coulibaly 25 5 5 3
Mike Muscala 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 20-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
17%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
7 Daniel Gafford WSH
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
7%
10 Josh Giddey OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
30%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.4 6.9 7.0
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.8 5.7 4.4
3 Jalen Williams OKC 21.8 4.4 5.6
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 20.2 6.4 3.6
5 Jordan Poole WSH 16.4 2.8 3.7
6 Tyus Jones WSH 16.0 3.0 5.9
7 Deni Avdija WSH 14.3 7.1 4.3
8 Josh Giddey OKC 14.2 6.0 5.0
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.2 4.4 2.0
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.4 2.3 1.8
11 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.3 7.6 1.4
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.1 4.4 2.0
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.1 2.6 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.0 2.3 1.8
15 Mike Muscala WSH 6.0 4.0 1.2
16 Landry Shamet WSH 5.8 1.2 1.4
17 Delon Wright WSH 5.6 2.2 2.4
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.5 3.0 1.2
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.8 1.8
20 Jared Butler WSH 5.4 1.3 2.1
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.6 1.4 1.0
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.3 1.7 0.7
23 Danilo Gallinari WSH 3.9 2.1 0.7
24 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.8 1.9 2.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.2 2.3 0.7
26 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.1 2.7 1.1
27 Tre Mann OKC 2.8 1.1 1.1
28 Johnny Davis WSH 2.7 1.4 0.6
29 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.9 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.