NBA games

BOS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
131–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34343330131
IND33264430133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home IND
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 38 40 5 2
Jrue Holiday S 38 21 6 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 38 19 5 7
Payton Pritchard 23 14 7 3
Derrick White S 36 13 4 6
Al Horford S 32 11 6 0
Oshae Brissett 16 6 6 0
Luke Kornet 10 5 2 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 5 2 1 0
Dalano Banton 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 29 26 4 3
Aaron Nesmith S 26 17 4 2
Myles Turner S 35 16 8 1
Buddy Hield 25 15 4 3
Obi Toppin 20 13 0 1
T.J. McConnell 25 12 4 7
Jalen Smith S 27 11 9 1
Andrew Nembhard 12 9 0 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 13 7 2 6
Bruce Brown S 21 7 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 2-foot driving dunk (Aaron Nesmith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
13%
2 Jrue Holiday BOS
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Bruce Brown IND
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Jalen Smith IND
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
13%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.1 6.0 4.4
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.9 8.1 1.9
3 Myles Turner IND 19.7 6.2 1.8
4 Derrick White BOS 19.1 4.6 4.9
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.0 4.9 9.3
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.1 6.1 4.6
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.6 4.0 2.0
8 Buddy Hield IND 12.0 3.8 2.1
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.7 3.9 1.8
10 Bruce Brown IND 10.7 4.5 2.6
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.6 5.1 1.6
12 Al Horford BOS 8.9 6.7 2.9
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.9 2.9 2.9
14 Jalen Smith IND 8.9 4.5 1.4
15 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.2 1.6 3.7
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.1 2.8 5.2
17 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.6 3.3 0.8
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.4 3.8 0.7
19 Luke Kornet BOS 5.3 4.0 1.0
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.9 4.3 0.8
21 Jordan Nwora IND 4.2 1.5 0.9
22 Jarace Walker IND 3.7 1.4 1.0
23 Dalano Banton BOS 3.6 2.1 0.7
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.1 1.3 0.7
25 Ben Sheppard IND 2.9 1.1 0.8
26 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.8 1.8 0.6
27 James Johnson IND 2.1 1.1 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.