NBA games

CHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
119–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHI2427322412119
CHA251833315112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CHA
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 42 27 6 5
Andre Drummond S 23 21 15 0
Nikola Vucevic 30 21 10 4
DeMar DeRozan S 44 18 7 7
Zach LaVine 36 9 3 5
Patrick Williams S 23 8 5 0
Ayo Dosunmu 18 6 1 2
Alex Caruso S 34 5 2 3
Dalen Terry 12 2 2 1
Jevon Carter 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 44 39 3 8
Miles Bridges S 40 24 8 5
Nick Smith Jr. 32 15 4 3
Nick Richards S 39 10 8 1
JT Thor 21 9 8 0
Brandon Miller S 31 4 6 4
Nate Mensah 15 3 4 0
James Bouknight 4 3 2 2
Bryce McGowens S 24 3 1 2
Ish Smith 15 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes layup (Alex Caruso assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Terry Rozier CHA
13%
3 Coby White CHI
11%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI
9%
6 Nick Richards CHA
9%
7 Andre Drummond CHI
8%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
9 Dalen Terry CHI
7%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
35%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier CHA 24.5 4.3 6.6
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.2 4.5 6.1
3 Coby White CHI 22.7 5.7 5.7
4 Miles Bridges CHA 21.4 7.0 3.7
5 Zach LaVine CHI 20.3 4.9 4.4
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.0 10.3 4.0
7 Brandon Miller CHA 15.5 3.5 2.7
8 Patrick Williams CHI 13.6 4.0 2.2
9 Alex Caruso CHI 12.2 3.9 2.9
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.2 4.1 1.9
11 Andre Drummond CHI 10.5 11.1 1.1
12 Nick Richards CHA 9.8 8.8 1.4
13 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.7 2.0 1.3
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.8 2.3 1.4
15 Ish Smith CHA 6.4 2.3 4.2
16 Jevon Carter CHI 6.1 1.6 1.2
17 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.9 1.8 2.2
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.8 2.5 1.8
19 Terry Taylor CHI 3.4 1.9 0.7
20 Nate Mensah CHA 3.3 2.7 0.5
21 James Bouknight CHA 3.1 0.9 0.5
22 JT Thor CHA 2.9 1.9 0.5
23 Julian Phillips CHI 1.8 1.0 0.4
24 Leaky Black CHA 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.