NBA games

LAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
103–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24292426103
LAL19303225106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home LAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 37 22 19 1
Paul George S 38 22 4 3
Kawhi Leonard S 35 15 8 2
James Harden S 39 15 4 9
Norman Powell 25 14 0 0
Russell Westbrook 19 7 1 3
Terance Mann S 25 6 0 3
Daniel Theis 9 2 3 0
Amir Coffey 13 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 38 25 8 7
Anthony Davis S 39 22 10 1
Taurean Prince S 30 13 1 2
D'Angelo Russell 31 13 0 6
Christian Wood 16 9 10 0
Austin Reaves S 32 8 0 2
Max Christie 13 7 3 0
Cam Reddish S 20 7 4 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 21 2 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
23%
2 LeBron James LAL
13%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 Paul George LAC
9%
7 Terance Mann LAC
7%
8 James Harden LAC
7%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
5%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 28.7 6.5 4.0
2 Anthony Davis LAL 26.8 11.3 4.7
3 LeBron James LAL 26.1 6.4 8.8
4 Paul George LAC 22.9 5.1 3.9
5 James Harden LAC 20.5 4.9 10.1
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.4 4.0 6.3
7 Norman Powell LAC 14.3 3.3 1.6
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.7 10.9 1.9
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.3 6.7 4.6
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.0 2.4 5.3
11 Taurean Prince LAL 10.7 3.5 2.5
12 Terance Mann LAC 8.4 2.9 1.6
13 Cam Reddish LAL 7.5 2.4 2.3
14 Christian Wood LAL 7.1 4.4 1.5
15 Daniel Theis LAC 6.9 3.1 1.0
16 Amir Coffey LAC 6.7 2.5 1.4
17 Max Christie LAL 5.8 3.0 1.2
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.6 4.8 1.2
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.9 3.5 0.9
20 Brandon Boston LAC 4.6 1.5 0.7
21 Bones Hyland LAC 4.4 1.4 1.2
22 Kobe Brown LAC 4.2 1.7 0.9
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.2 1.0
24 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.0 1.7 0.5
25 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.7 1.1 0.9
26 Dylan Windler LAL 2.5 0.8 0.6
27 Jordan Miller LAC 2.0 0.7 0.4
28 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.4 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.