NBA games

TOR @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
133–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR36402532133
GS28213831118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home GS
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 36 37 6 6
Chris Boucher 16 17 9 1
Pascal Siakam S 30 16 6 6
Jakob Poeltl S 31 14 11 5
Gary Trent Jr. 26 14 1 1
Dennis Schroder 28 13 3 4
Immanuel Quickley S 26 9 5 10
Scottie Barnes S 24 6 2 3
Thaddeus Young 4 3 0 0
Garrett Temple 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 28 25 0 3
Moses Moody 22 21 3 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 27 16 11 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 25 13 4 4
Dario Saric 18 11 5 4
Kevon Looney 17 10 7 2
Stephen Curry S 30 9 1 6
Brandin Podziemski 29 5 8 4
Lester Quinones 7 5 1 0
Andrew Wiggins S 17 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Stephen Curry GS
13%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Klay Thompson GS
9%
7 Pascal Siakam TOR
8%
8 Kevon Looney GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
41%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam TOR 26.4 5.9 5.4
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.1 3.9 6.3
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.0 8.6 5.9
4 Klay Thompson GS 17.6 3.7 2.8
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.5 3.0 3.0
6 RJ Barrett TOR 17.0 5.9 2.3
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.0 5.8 3.0
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 14.9 3.2 6.3
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.3 4.1 1.8
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.2 3.4 2.3
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.1 5.6 4.8
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.1 7.7 1.9
13 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.4 7.7 2.6
14 Draymond Green GS 10.0 5.0 5.2
15 Dario Saric GS 9.3 4.5 1.9
16 Moses Moody GS 6.6 2.6 1.0
17 Chris Boucher TOR 5.8 4.0 0.7
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 4.6 1.7
19 Jontay Porter TOR 4.4 2.9 0.5
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.2 1.6 0.8
21 Lester Quinones GS 3.1 0.9 0.8
22 Cory Joseph GS 3.0 1.4 1.7
23 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.6 1.5 0.8
24 Jerome Robinson GS 2.5 1.0 0.5
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.