NBA games

MEM @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
121–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26322835121
PHX32313418115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home PHX
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 28 10 6
Marcus Smart S 38 25 6 8
Desmond Bane S 37 23 5 5
Vince Williams Jr. 37 19 9 1
Ziaire Williams 27 9 4 3
Luke Kennard S 22 9 3 3
Santi Aldama 16 7 7 1
Bismack Biyombo 26 1 6 2
Xavier Tillman S 3 0 3 0
John Konchar 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 24 0 8
Kevin Durant S 36 23 10 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 18 19 5
Grayson Allen S 39 16 2 3
Bradley Beal S 37 12 6 5
Drew Eubanks 13 8 7 0
Josh Okogie 14 6 1 2
Chimezie Metu 12 4 1 0
Keita Bates-Diop 14 3 3 1
Saben Lee 4 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 1-foot hook shot (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
13%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
7 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Bismack Biyombo MEM
8%
10 Chimezie Metu PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
45%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.4 5.9 6.5
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.2 4.3 7.6
3 Desmond Bane MEM 24.1 4.4 6.1
4 Bradley Beal PHX 20.4 4.4 4.2
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.0 5.7 1.9
6 Grayson Allen PHX 16.6 4.4 3.2
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.0 11.4 2.8
8 Marcus Smart MEM 14.1 2.7 3.5
9 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.5 2.7 1.4
10 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.5 4.8 1.3
11 Luke Kennard MEM 8.3 2.8 1.7
12 Derrick Rose MEM 7.4 1.9 3.5
13 Santi Aldama MEM 7.0 4.2 1.2
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.0 5.5 1.9
15 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.6 6.2 1.1
16 David Roddy MEM 5.9 2.4 1.4
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.2 4.0 0.7
18 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.0 2.9 2.5
19 Xavier Tillman MEM 4.9 4.9 1.1
20 Saben Lee PHX 4.9 2.0 1.4
21 Josh Okogie PHX 4.7 2.8 1.7
22 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.6 2.3 1.1
23 Yuta Watanabe PHX 4.0 1.8 0.7
24 John Konchar MEM 3.7 3.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.