NBA games

DET @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
114–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29282829114
DEN31344323131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home DEN
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 30 20 5 4
Alec Burks 20 18 4 1
Bojan Bogdanovic S 27 14 1 1
Jaden Ivey S 27 13 4 6
Kevin Knox II 20 12 3 1
Isaiah Livers S 31 11 5 1
James Wiseman 18 9 3 0
Marcus Sasser 11 7 2 1
Ausar Thompson 20 5 5 4
Cade Cunningham S 11 3 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 30 37 5 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 36 18 4 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 28 18 1 2
Peyton Watson 23 15 6 1
Reggie Jackson 21 13 3 9
DeAndre Jordan 21 9 7 1
Aaron Gordon S 20 8 1 1
Christian Braun 21 7 3 1
Nikola Jokic S 25 4 7 16
Braxton Key 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 2-foot hook shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
10%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Isaiah Livers DET
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
23%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.0 4.6 8.1
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.9 10.8 8.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.0 4.9 6.9
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.0 4.6 3.4
5 Jaden Ivey DET 17.3 5.0 4.2
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.8 6.1 2.7
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.9 5.2 1.6
8 Jalen Duren DET 13.3 11.1 1.8
9 Alec Burks DET 10.3 2.6 1.4
10 Peyton Watson DEN 9.7 3.5 1.2
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.6 3.2 3.1
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.8 2.2 3.7
13 James Wiseman DET 7.9 5.9 1.1
14 Kevin Knox II DET 7.5 2.0 1.0
15 Marvin Bagley III DET 6.9 3.6 0.6
16 Killian Hayes DET 6.1 3.0 3.7
17 Christian Braun DEN 6.1 2.9 1.5
18 Isaiah Livers DET 5.4 2.5 1.0
19 Justin Holiday DEN 5.3 1.7 1.4
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.0 1.5 1.3
21 Ausar Thompson DET 4.9 3.5 1.2
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 2.8 0.8
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.3 4.7 0.6
24 Braxton Key DEN 2.6 1.4 0.8
25 Joe Harris DET 2.3 0.9 0.6
26 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.2 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.