NBA games

MIN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
108–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29272626108
DAL30303124115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DAL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 36 10 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 24 7 1
Naz Reid 27 15 9 0
Rudy Gobert S 34 9 17 1
Mike Conley S 32 9 1 7
Jordan McLaughlin 13 6 1 1
Kyle Anderson 20 4 2 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 13 3 1 1
Jaden McDaniels S 37 2 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 39 35 8 5
Luka Doncic S 39 34 6 8
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 12 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 35 12 10 1
Dwight Powell S 28 9 6 4
Grant Williams 20 9 2 0
Josh Green S 31 4 5 1
Jaden Hardy 4 0 0 0
Seth Curry 12 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Dwight Powell DAL
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Josh Green DAL
8%
9 Jaden Hardy DAL
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
25%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 34.8 7.2 10.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.6 5.5 6.1
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.8 5.4 3.6
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.7 8.4 3.6
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.3 3.9 2.4
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.2 12.1 1.5
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.0 3.4 1.7
8 Mike Conley MIN 12.3 2.7 6.1
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.6 4.2 1.3
10 Jaden Hardy DAL 10.4 3.1 2.1
11 Naz Reid MIN 10.3 4.6 1.7
12 Josh Green DAL 8.2 2.8 2.5
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.1 4.0 3.5
14 Grant Williams DAL 6.9 3.7 1.5
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.4 2.0 2.1
16 Seth Curry DAL 5.8 2.0 1.0
17 A.J. Lawson DAL 5.5 2.0 0.9
18 Dwight Powell DAL 5.4 3.8 1.5
19 Shake Milton MIN 4.8 1.4 1.2
20 Brandon Williams DAL 4.8 1.4 0.9
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.1 2.8 1.0
22 Leonard Miller MIN 3.7 2.6 0.5
23 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.6 1.7 1.6
24 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.3 1.6 0.8
25 Markieff Morris DAL 3.3 1.9 1.0
26 Greg Brown III DAL 3.3 2.2 0.6
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.8 1.6 0.8
28 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.8 3.1 0.4
29 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.