NBA games

NO @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
133–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO33393130133
SAC21261439100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SAC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 27 30 7 4
Brandon Ingram S 30 15 4 8
Jonas Valanciunas S 22 15 12 1
Dyson Daniels 29 14 5 6
Jordan Hawkins 24 12 3 2
Trey Murphy III S 24 11 2 5
Naji Marshall 22 11 6 2
Herbert Jones S 26 9 3 2
Cody Zeller 7 7 2 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 10 7 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Huerter 24 17 1 3
Domantas Sabonis S 29 17 10 6
Keon Ellis 12 13 2 1
Sasha Vezenkov 21 11 2 0
Kessler Edwards 8 10 2 0
Harrison Barnes S 22 10 1 0
Keegan Murray S 26 8 1 0
Malik Monk 21 6 1 5
Colby Jones 10 4 1 4
De'Aaron Fox S 26 3 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 9-foot two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
12%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
6 Herbert Jones NO
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
8 CJ McCollum NO
9%
9 Chris Duarte SAC
8%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
21%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.5 4.6 6.2
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.6 13.4 9.3
3 Brandon Ingram NO 23.1 4.6 6.0
4 CJ McCollum NO 19.7 4.3 5.2
5 Malik Monk SAC 16.3 3.1 5.9
6 Keegan Murray SAC 15.1 5.3 1.7
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.8 10.2 2.2
8 Trey Murphy III NO 12.4 3.9 2.1
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.3 2.7 1.3
10 Herbert Jones NO 9.7 2.8 2.0
11 Naji Marshall NO 6.7 2.7 2.0
12 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.2 2.4 1.5
13 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.1 5.3 1.2
14 Dyson Daniels NO 5.4 2.5 1.7
15 Chris Duarte SAC 5.0 2.1 1.2
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.5 1.5 0.8
17 JaVale McGee SAC 4.2 2.0 0.8
18 Keon Ellis SAC 4.0 1.4 1.6
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.9 2.4 0.7
20 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.6 1.3 1.2
21 E.J. Liddell NO 3.2 2.2 0.8
22 Cody Zeller NO 3.0 2.4 1.1
23 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 2.8 2.2 0.6
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.2 1.0 0.3
25 Alex Len SAC 2.0 2.9 0.9
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 1.9 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.