NBA games

ATL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
110–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
ATL283218275110
ORL3219342012117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home ORL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 42 31 4 9
Dejounte Murray S 40 24 6 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 18 3 1
Saddiq Bey S 38 16 7 2
Jalen Johnson S 40 12 11 4
Onyeka Okongwu 32 5 6 3
Clint Capela S 36 4 12 0
Wesley Matthews 9 0 1 0
Garrison Mathews 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 45 35 10 4
Caleb Houstan S 36 25 2 4
Jalen Suggs S 29 16 5 3
Moritz Wagner 25 15 7 0
Goga Bitadze S 28 11 14 3
Cole Anthony 31 10 9 5
Chuma Okeke S 38 3 7 2
Trevelin Queen 6 2 1 0
Anthony Black 12 0 0 0
Markelle Fultz 15 0 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chuma Okeke · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Chuma Okeke makes 23-foot three point shot (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
11%
2 Clint Capela ATL
10%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
5 Markelle Fultz ORL
9%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
7 Moritz Wagner ORL
8%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Saddiq Bey ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
14%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 28.4 3.6 10.6
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.8 7.6 6.7
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.7 4.7 4.4
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.4 3.3 3.6
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.2 7.8 3.2
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.7 3.8 2.8
7 Cole Anthony ORL 13.7 4.5 3.6
8 Clint Capela ATL 13.3 11.1 1.4
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.9 6.4 1.4
10 Saddiq Bey ATL 11.8 6.6 1.6
11 Markelle Fultz ORL 11.8 3.9 4.2
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.7 5.8 1.7
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.7 6.5 1.3
14 Anthony Black ORL 7.1 3.1 2.4
15 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.9 2.1 1.9
16 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.1 2.0 1.0
17 Joe Ingles ORL 5.7 2.4 3.1
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.8 1.9 0.8
19 Chuma Okeke ORL 4.1 2.7 1.0
20 Seth Lundy ATL 3.8 1.5 0.5
21 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.5 2.2 0.5
22 AJ Griffin ATL 3.2 1.4 0.6
23 Trent Forrest ATL 3.1 1.7 1.3
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.7 1.4 0.8
25 Wesley Matthews ATL 1.9 1.2 0.4
26 Patty Mills ATL 1.8 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.