NBA games

POR @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
134–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
POR2624353019134
BKN3022412212127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home BKN
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 45 38 4 11
Jerami Grant S 42 27 2 1
Shaedon Sharpe 40 21 1 1
Malcolm Brogdon 22 18 3 2
Duop Reath S 41 15 13 1
Scoot Henderson S 30 10 3 4
Toumani Camara S 29 5 6 1
Kris Murray 7 0 3 0
Ibou Badji 9 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 44 42 4 3
Cameron Johnson S 34 17 6 3
Nic Claxton S 36 16 11 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 11 6 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 29 10 2 10
Dorian Finney-Smith S 36 9 5 2
Cam Thomas 18 9 3 0
Royce O'Neale 18 8 3 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 28 5 3 5
Lonnie Walker IV 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot two point shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
10 Duop Reath POR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 24.5 4.2 5.5
2 Jerami Grant POR 22.5 4.0 4.1
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 20.2 5.1 4.1
4 Scoot Henderson POR 16.8 3.8 6.2
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.8 4.0 2.2
6 Cam Thomas BKN 15.1 2.2 2.3
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.9 3.4 5.3
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR 14.3 4.2 2.5
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 13.2 3.6 5.2
10 Nic Claxton BKN 13.0 11.0 2.2
11 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 10.6 2.5 1.6
12 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 9.7 4.3 4.7
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.5 3.8 1.6
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.2 7.8 2.0
15 Duop Reath POR 9.0 4.3 1.2
16 Jabari Walker POR 8.3 6.1 1.2
17 Toumani Camara POR 8.2 5.2 1.2
18 Royce O'Neale BKN 7.8 4.1 3.3
19 Trendon Watford BKN 5.2 2.5 1.6
20 Kris Murray POR 5.0 2.7 1.0
21 Ibou Badji POR 4.0 4.0 0.7
22 Harry Giles III BKN 3.4 1.7 0.4
23 Rayan Rupert POR 2.9 1.4 0.7
24 Justin Minaya POR 1.9 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.