NBA games

SA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
115–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32242831115
CLE28342629117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CLE
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 25 24 10 3
Devin Vassell S 35 22 2 3
Keldon Johnson 33 18 4 2
Tre Jones S 34 18 2 4
Jeremy Sochan S 28 11 5 4
Cedi Osman 21 9 6 1
Dominick Barlow 22 6 6 2
Blake Wesley 12 3 2 0
Julian Champagnie S 16 2 2 1
Malaki Branham 15 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 31 29 16 2
Caris LeVert 26 23 2 3
Sam Merrill 23 18 3 3
Donovan Mitchell S 37 17 2 9
Georges Niang 27 11 4 1
Max Strus S 37 8 5 4
Tristan Thompson 17 8 4 2
Isaac Okoro S 27 3 5 1
Dean Wade S 11 0 2 1
Craig Porter Jr. 4 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Julian Champagnie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
15%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
9%
5 Tre Jones SA
9%
6 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Malaki Branham SA
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
20%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.7 10.2 4.0
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.7 5.6 6.7
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 21.3 14.1 4.8
4 Keldon Johnson SA 19.5 6.1 3.5
5 Caris LeVert CLE 19.5 4.1 5.7
6 Devin Vassell SA 18.9 3.7 3.6
7 Max Strus CLE 16.5 4.6 4.5
8 Isaac Okoro CLE 13.5 4.0 3.4
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.4 5.6 3.6
10 Mamadi Diakite SA 10.8 4.7 0.8
11 Malaki Branham SA 10.1 3.1 2.9
12 Georges Niang CLE 10.1 3.9 1.6
13 Tre Jones SA 10.0 3.4 4.3
14 Sam Merrill CLE 9.7 2.8 2.0
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 9.2 4.2 4.7
16 Dean Wade CLE 8.4 5.5 1.4
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.3 2.3 1.0
18 Tristan Thompson CLE 6.0 5.1 1.7
19 Cedi Osman SA 5.7 2.1 1.9
20 Doug McDermott SA 4.0 0.9 0.7
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.7 2.3 1.3
22 Dominick Barlow SA 3.2 2.3 0.7
23 Devonte' Graham SA 3.2 1.2 1.3
24 Damian Jones CLE 3.1 1.9 0.7
25 Blake Wesley SA 2.8 1.3 1.5
26 Emoni Bates CLE 2.3 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.