NBA games

MIL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
108–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL18253035108
HOU29342623112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home HOU
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 48 17 2
Damian Lillard S 38 18 2 8
Khris Middleton S 33 10 3 5
Pat Connaughton 19 9 1 1
Brook Lopez S 31 7 5 0
Bobby Portis 17 6 6 0
MarJon Beauchamp 23 5 4 3
Malik Beasley S 16 3 1 0
Cameron Payne 8 1 0 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 12 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 31 21 11 4
Jeff Green 34 16 2 2
Jalen Green S 28 16 4 2
Fred VanVleet S 37 14 2 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 14 12 2
Cam Whitmore 13 12 3 0
Aaron Holiday 21 11 1 0
Amen Thompson 16 4 3 5
Jae'Sean Tate S 19 4 8 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 3-foot dunk (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
30%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Jalen Green HOU
7%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
9 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
6%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
81%
Jumper
2%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.7 12.6 7.9
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 27.4 9.3 5.4
3 Damian Lillard MIL 25.7 4.1 6.6
4 Khris Middleton MIL 20.6 3.9 6.2
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 20.0 3.7 8.9
6 Jalen Green HOU 18.5 4.9 3.3
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.8 7.5 1.5
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.3 5.9 1.3
9 Bobby Portis MIL 12.1 6.7 1.4
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.2 3.5 1.4
11 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.2 2.3 1.7
12 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.0 2.2 0.8
13 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.4 3.3 1.4
14 Jeff Green HOU 6.2 2.1 1.0
15 Amen Thompson HOU 6.2 3.5 1.7
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.1 3.4 1.5
17 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.8 2.5 1.0
18 Cameron Payne MIL 5.3 1.3 1.8
19 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.8 1.5 0.9
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.7 2.7 0.9
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.6 1.7 1.1
22 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.2 0.7
23 AJ Green MIL 2.8 0.8 0.4
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.1 1.1 0.6
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.1 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.