NBA games

UTAH @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
120–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH32262933120
PHI28292230109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home PHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 35 33 13 1
Collin Sexton S 27 22 3 10
John Collins S 28 19 5 2
Jordan Clarkson 31 18 5 6
Walker Kessler 19 10 4 0
Simone Fontecchio S 33 7 7 2
Keyonte George 16 6 2 3
Kelly Olynyk 15 5 1 4
Kris Dunn S 23 0 5 1
Ochai Agbaji 13 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 42 25 1 9
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 24 4 4
Paul Reed S 25 16 6 1
Marcus Morris Sr. S 28 15 6 1
Patrick Beverley 34 12 4 7
KJ Martin 17 9 2 1
Mo Bamba 17 6 5 1
Nicolas Batum S 26 2 4 4
Jaden Springer 13 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
17%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
15%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 John Collins UTAH
8%
7 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
8%
8 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
9 Nicolas Batum PHI
7%
10 Keyonte George UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
9%
Layup
60%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 40.7 11.0 7.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.6 3.4 6.6
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.5 7.5 3.0
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.9 3.3 4.9
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.2 4.3 5.3
6 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 15.1 2.7 3.7
7 Keyonte George UTAH 12.2 2.9 3.8
8 John Collins UTAH 12.0 6.2 1.3
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.0 4.0 1.7
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.4 4.1 1.7
11 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.8 4.0 4.8
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.4 8.5 0.9
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.2 3.4 2.5
14 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.0 3.6 5.1
15 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 6.9 2.6 1.3
16 Paul Reed PHI 6.9 4.4 1.5
17 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.5 2.8 1.2
18 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.8 2.4 1.5
19 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.6 1.5 0.9
20 Mo Bamba PHI 4.5 2.9 1.0
21 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.2 2.9 0.6
22 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.1 5.5 0.8
23 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.1 1.8 1.0
24 Jaden Springer PHI 3.9 1.6 1.0
25 Robert Covington PHI 2.9 2.4 0.6
26 KJ Martin PHI 2.7 1.3 0.8
27 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.6 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.