NBA games

NY @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
121–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY34292830121
WSH19243230105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home WSH
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 38 39 7 5
Jalen Brunson S 35 33 3 8
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 10 5 3
OG Anunoby S 31 9 5 2
Josh Hart 32 9 4 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 39 8 19 2
Quentin Grimes 15 6 1 1
Miles McBride 13 5 1 5
Precious Achiuwa 8 2 0 0
Malachi Flynn 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 32 27 2 2
Deni Avdija S 33 23 10 6
Tyus Jones S 28 11 1 8
Jordan Poole S 30 10 3 4
Jared Butler 3 8 0 2
Corey Kispert 15 8 2 1
Daniel Gafford S 31 6 12 3
Bilal Coulibaly 28 4 3 3
Anthony Gill 3 3 2 0
Delon Wright 17 2 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
7 Donte DiVincenzo NY
9%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
10 OG Anunoby NY
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
16%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 27.9 9.9 4.1
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.1 4.4 7.7
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.8 6.0 4.3
4 Tyus Jones WSH 17.0 3.1 6.1
5 Jordan Poole WSH 16.6 2.7 3.6
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 14.3 3.8 2.7
7 OG Anunoby NY 14.0 4.0 2.9
8 Deni Avdija WSH 12.6 6.6 3.7
9 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.0 8.1 1.4
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.1 2.1 1.6
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.5 11.0 2.8
12 Josh Hart NY 9.6 7.9 3.3
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.1 4.1 1.8
14 Evan Fournier NY 7.5 2.1 0.9
15 Quentin Grimes NY 6.8 2.6 1.1
16 Mike Muscala WSH 6.2 3.6 1.4
17 Delon Wright WSH 6.2 2.3 2.9
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.0 3.7 1.0
19 Malachi Flynn NY 5.5 2.6 2.6
20 Jared Butler WSH 5.4 1.4 2.0
21 Miles McBride NY 4.4 1.3 1.1
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.3 1.6 0.7
23 Danilo Gallinari WSH 4.0 2.0 0.6
24 Jericho Sims NY 3.4 2.3 0.6
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 2.3 0.7
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.9 1.6 0.7
27 Johnny Davis WSH 2.7 1.6 0.6
28 Taj Gibson NY 2.2 2.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.