NBA games

BOS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
118–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29292634118
IND17323220101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home IND
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 38 13 6
Jaylen Brown S 36 31 4 1
Al Horford 30 10 7 8
Oshae Brissett 20 8 8 0
Jrue Holiday S 37 8 6 5
Derrick White S 24 7 5 2
Payton Pritchard 15 5 2 0
Sam Hauser 16 5 4 1
Luke Kornet 16 4 4 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 6 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 35 20 4 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 17 6 7
Buddy Hield S 31 15 2 3
Myles Turner S 30 12 7 2
Obi Toppin 23 10 3 1
Aaron Nesmith S 32 8 4 0
Jalen Smith S 26 7 7 2
T.J. McConnell 12 6 1 5
Isaiah Jackson 9 4 3 0
Oscar Tshiebwe 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND
15%
2 Myles Turner IND
14%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
12%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
11%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Jalen Smith IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
22%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.8 7.6 5.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.6 5.8 4.9
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 22.6 8.2 2.0
4 Derrick White BOS 20.3 4.7 5.1
5 Myles Turner IND 19.6 6.2 1.7
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.5 4.8 8.8
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.7 4.0 1.9
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.6 5.9 4.3
9 Buddy Hield IND 12.4 3.9 2.2
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.8 4.2 1.9
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.1 5.3 1.8
12 Al Horford BOS 9.1 6.8 2.5
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.0 3.2 3.2
14 Jalen Smith IND 9.0 4.4 1.3
15 T.J. McConnell IND 7.8 3.2 5.3
16 Sam Hauser BOS 6.6 3.4 1.1
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.3 4.1 0.9
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.4 4.0 0.8
19 Neemias Queta BOS 5.4 4.4 0.8
20 Jordan Nwora IND 5.3 1.9 1.0
21 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.9 2.7 0.8
22 Jarace Walker IND 4.3 1.6 1.1
23 Dalano Banton BOS 3.7 2.2 0.7
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.3 1.5 0.7
25 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.3 2.1 0.6
26 Ben Sheppard IND 3.1 1.3 0.7
27 James Johnson IND 2.7 1.5 1.1
28 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.0 1.1 0.3
29 Kendall Brown IND 1.8 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.