NBA games

TOR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
130–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27304033130
SAC36413028135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home SAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 20 4 6
Immanuel Quickley S 38 20 5 8
Dennis Schroder 32 18 2 3
Pascal Siakam S 37 18 4 9
Chris Boucher 28 14 9 1
RJ Barrett S 27 14 4 2
Jakob Poeltl S 23 14 6 2
Jontay Porter 13 10 3 0
Jalen McDaniels 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 39 24 15 11
De'Aaron Fox S 37 24 2 4
Keegan Murray S 35 18 12 1
Harrison Barnes S 34 16 4 2
Malik Monk 32 15 1 9
Trey Lyles 15 12 3 1
Chris Duarte S 16 10 0 1
Davion Mitchell 11 7 1 2
JaVale McGee 7 6 2 1
Kevin Huerter 14 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Duarte · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Chris Duarte makes 1-foot dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Pascal Siakam TOR
9%
9 Chris Duarte SAC
8%
10 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.3 4.7 6.5
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 25.7 5.8 5.1
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.7 13.9 9.6
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.1 8.6 6.2
5 Keegan Murray SAC 17.3 5.2 2.0
6 Malik Monk SAC 17.3 3.3 6.2
7 RJ Barrett TOR 17.2 5.7 2.4
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.4 3.0 2.4
9 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.6 2.9 6.5
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.4 3.4 2.4
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.6 2.7 1.4
12 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.5 7.8 2.5
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.0 3.9 1.3
14 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.9 2.6 1.8
15 Chris Boucher TOR 4.8 3.3 0.6
16 Keon Ellis SAC 4.3 1.5 1.7
17 Chris Duarte SAC 4.2 2.2 1.1
18 JaVale McGee SAC 4.0 2.1 0.9
19 Ron Harper Jr. TOR 3.6 1.3 0.9
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.3 1.2 0.6
21 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.3 1.3 1.3
22 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 3.1 2.3 0.7
23 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.7 1.6 0.8
24 Alex Len SAC 2.6 3.2 1.1
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.1 0.7 0.4
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.6 0.8 0.4
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.