NBA games

MEM @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
127–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29293633127
LAL38213519113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 31 9 1
Marcus Smart S 39 29 2 5
Desmond Bane S 37 24 5 13
Ja Morant S 35 21 7 7
Ziaire Williams 20 15 1 1
Bismack Biyombo S 31 6 10 1
Xavier Tillman 12 1 5 1
David Roddy 7 0 2 0
Luke Kennard 20 0 3 4
Santi Aldama 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 39 32 5 7
Anthony Davis S 41 31 6 4
Austin Reaves S 40 19 7 12
Christian Wood 16 11 5 0
Taurean Prince S 35 10 2 2
Cam Reddish S 32 8 2 0
Max Christie 20 2 3 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 17 0 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 11-foot two point shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Ja Morant MEM
10%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
7 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
8 Xavier Tillman MEM
7%
9 Bismack Biyombo MEM
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
10%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 28.4 11.8 4.5
2 Ja Morant MEM 27.6 5.8 8.7
3 LeBron James LAL 26.7 6.9 9.2
4 Desmond Bane MEM 24.5 4.4 5.8
5 Austin Reaves LAL 20.0 4.1 5.8
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.4 5.3 1.9
7 Marcus Smart MEM 13.4 3.0 4.0
8 Taurean Prince LAL 11.3 3.7 2.5
9 Luke Kennard MEM 8.4 2.8 1.9
10 Santi Aldama MEM 8.2 4.6 1.4
11 Derrick Rose MEM 8.2 2.2 4.0
12 Cam Reddish LAL 8.2 2.8 2.4
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.2 3.0 1.6
14 David Roddy MEM 6.7 2.8 1.8
15 Christian Wood LAL 6.5 4.3 1.5
16 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.3 6.0 1.2
17 Max Christie LAL 5.7 2.8 1.3
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.0 3.5 1.0
19 Xavier Tillman MEM 4.7 4.5 1.2
20 John Konchar MEM 4.7 3.7 1.2
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.7 2.2 0.6
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 3.3 1.5 1.0
23 Alex Fudge LAL 3.0 1.8 0.6
24 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.8 0.7 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.5 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.