NBA games

DET @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
109113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET20262934109
GS22282934113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home GS
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 30 5 3
Kevin Knox II 23 18 1 3
Alec Burks 21 13 4 2
Jalen Duren S 33 13 12 2
Bojan Bogdanovic S 36 12 5 3
Jaden Ivey S 24 12 4 3
Isaiah Livers S 22 5 1 1
James Wiseman 15 4 3 0
Ausar Thompson 9 2 4 1
Killian Hayes 16 0 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 26 6 4
Klay Thompson S 35 19 3 4
Dario Saric 22 17 3 1
Brandin Podziemski 25 11 5 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis 23 11 9 0
Jonathan Kuminga S 36 11 6 1
Chris Paul S 24 8 6 4
Kevon Looney S 12 4 4 1
Andrew Wiggins 19 3 2 2
Cory Joseph 9 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
3 Klay Thompson GS
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
5 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
9%
6 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
7 Stephen Curry GS
9%
8 Kevon Looney GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Chris Paul GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
25%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.3 4.4 8.3
2 Stephen Curry GS 26.2 3.8 5.9
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.4 4.5 3.4
4 Klay Thompson GS 18.7 3.8 2.8
5 Jaden Ivey DET 18.2 5.1 4.3
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.9 5.7 3.0
7 Jalen Duren DET 14.0 11.2 2.0
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.2 5.6 4.9
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.5 4.2 1.9
10 Chris Paul GS 11.0 3.6 7.0
11 Draymond Green GS 10.2 5.1 5.2
12 Alec Burks DET 10.1 2.5 1.2
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.1 7.1 1.9
14 Dario Saric GS 9.1 4.6 2.0
15 James Wiseman DET 8.4 5.9 1.2
16 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.2 3.7 0.7
17 Killian Hayes DET 7.0 3.1 3.9
18 Kevin Knox II DET 5.9 1.8 0.9
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.8 5.2 2.0
20 Moses Moody GS 5.6 2.4 0.7
21 Isaiah Livers DET 5.5 2.4 1.2
22 Ausar Thompson DET 5.3 3.6 1.4
23 Marcus Sasser DET 4.2 1.1 1.1
24 Lester Quinones GS 3.2 1.0 0.8
25 Joe Harris DET 2.7 0.9 0.6
26 Jerome Robinson GS 2.7 1.0 0.5
27 Cory Joseph GS 2.3 1.0 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.