NBA games

MIA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
97–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2926202297
PHX33293219113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHX
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 36 28 10 1
Kevin Love 20 20 7 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 35 10 3 1
Josh Richardson 29 10 8 7
Tyler Herro S 35 9 4 6
Jamal Cain 5 7 2 0
Kyle Lowry S 23 6 3 4
Duncan Robinson 27 4 1 3
Nikola Jovic S 24 3 4 1
R.J. Hampton 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 37 31 4 4
Bradley Beal S 37 25 8 9
Devin Booker S 35 20 5 10
Drew Eubanks 22 11 6 0
Chimezie Metu S 17 7 2 0
Josh Okogie 24 7 2 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 6 9 2
Bol Bol 10 4 3 1
Yuta Watanabe 9 2 1 0
Keita Bates-Diop 19 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Layup (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Devin Booker makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
12%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
12%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
6 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
8 Chimezie Metu PHX
7%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
22%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 24.7 4.0 7.4
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.8 5.5 4.5
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.4 10.1 4.3
4 Bradley Beal PHX 17.6 4.0 3.8
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.3 4.4 3.1
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.8 11.0 3.4
7 Grayson Allen PHX 14.8 4.1 2.9
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.9 2.9 3.4
9 Josh Richardson MIA 11.0 2.9 2.4
10 Kyle Lowry MIA 10.9 2.7 3.9
11 Kevin Love MIA 10.5 6.7 2.4
12 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.1 4.5 1.2
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.8 3.7 1.7
14 Jamal Cain MIA 6.4 2.4 0.8
15 Cole Swider MIA 5.7 1.3 1.0
16 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.9 2.0 1.0
17 Jordan Goodwin PHX 4.9 2.9 2.7
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.6 3.7 0.7
19 Josh Okogie PHX 4.6 2.7 1.3
20 R.J. Hampton MIA 4.4 1.6 1.4
21 Bol Bol PHX 4.1 2.1 0.7
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.0 3.1 0.6
23 Saben Lee PHX 3.6 1.3 1.2
24 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.0 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.