NBA games

ORL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
122–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL28264127122
DEN37303122120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DEN
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 41 32 10 11
Jalen Suggs S 34 27 4 1
Cole Anthony 31 23 2 4
Moritz Wagner S 38 19 11 3
Caleb Houstan 24 8 0 1
Trevelin Queen 31 5 5 2
Admiral Schofield 9 5 1 1
Chuma Okeke S 29 3 7 1
Anthony Black S 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 29 4 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 22 3 1
Jamal Murray S 33 20 7 9
Aaron Gordon S 36 16 8 3
Reggie Jackson 17 11 3 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 29 6 3 2
Christian Braun 16 6 4 0
Peyton Watson 13 4 1 0
Braxton Key 6 3 2 1
Zeke Nnaji 11 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
15%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
12%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
11%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
9%
9 Chuma Okeke ORL
0%
10 Admiral Schofield ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
33%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.1 7.5 5.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.8 10.9 8.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.8 4.7 6.4
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.8 5.9 2.7
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.1 3.6 2.8
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.1 5.9 1.4
7 Cole Anthony ORL 12.2 4.0 3.1
8 Peyton Watson DEN 10.4 3.9 1.2
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.4 3.1 2.5
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.0 5.5 1.9
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.6 2.3 3.5
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 4.7 1.3
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.6 6.2 1.2
14 Anthony Black ORL 7.1 3.1 2.2
15 Christian Braun DEN 6.9 2.9 1.4
16 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.5 1.6 1.8
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.6 2.0 0.7
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.6 1.4 1.3
19 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.8 2.1 0.8
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.8 0.8
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.1 4.7 0.5
22 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.5 1.2 0.6
23 Collin Gillespie DEN 1.9 0.7 0.6
24 Braxton Key DEN 1.7 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.