NBA games

MIN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
122–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN32242838122
HOU2422262395

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home HOU
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 33 24 3 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 22 8 6
Jaden McDaniels S 30 16 3 0
Naz Reid 25 16 7 2
Rudy Gobert S 33 13 12 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 11 3 3
Mike Conley S 25 8 2 5
Troy Brown Jr. 3 3 1 1
Jordan McLaughlin 13 3 3 3
Luka Garza 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 31 20 5 2
Alperen Sengun S 33 19 5 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 16 9 2
Cam Whitmore 15 11 2 0
Fred VanVleet S 31 7 1 8
Amen Thompson 20 6 6 1
Aaron Holiday 19 5 2 2
Reggie Bullock Jr. 8 5 1 0
Jeff Green 21 4 1 0
Boban Marjanovic 4 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
17%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Jalen Green HOU
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
23%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.0 4.8 5.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 26.8 8.8 5.5
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.6 8.9 3.2
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 21.2 3.7 8.7
5 Jalen Green HOU 17.1 4.5 3.5
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.5 7.5 1.4
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.2 3.0 1.6
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.2 10.6 1.4
9 Mike Conley MIN 11.7 2.5 6.1
10 Naz Reid MIN 10.1 4.1 1.5
11 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.0 3.5 3.8
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.6 2.1 1.6
13 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.2 3.1 1.2
14 Jeff Green HOU 6.2 1.8 1.1
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.8 1.9 0.7
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.7 1.6 1.7
17 Amen Thompson HOU 5.6 3.0 1.5
18 Shake Milton MIN 4.8 1.2 1.2
19 Luka Garza MIN 4.3 1.6 0.7
20 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.8 1.3 0.9
21 Leonard Miller MIN 3.7 2.5 0.4
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.5 1.3 0.7
23 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.0 1.5 1.3
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 1.1 0.6
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.0 0.6
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.4 1.6 0.3
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.6 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.