NBA games

CHA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
91–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2219282291
CHI23242730104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CHI
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 42 28 5 2
Terry Rozier S 36 15 4 7
Cody Martin S 36 13 5 2
Nick Smith Jr. 16 10 2 0
Brandon Miller S 23 9 3 1
Ish Smith 16 6 2 4
Nate Mensah 17 4 2 0
Nick Richards S 27 4 12 1
JT Thor 16 2 2 1
P.J. Washington 6 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 40 22 10 6
DeMar DeRozan S 38 17 1 6
Zach LaVine 30 15 5 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 40 12 5 4
Nikola Vucevic 25 11 7 3
Dalen Terry S 21 8 1 4
Andre Drummond S 23 7 10 0
Jevon Carter 14 7 2 2
Terry Taylor 9 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ayo Dosunmu · Layup (2 pts) · 10:33 Q1
"Ayo Dosunmu makes two point shot (Dalen Terry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
4 Coby White CHI
9%
5 Terry Rozier CHA
9%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
8 Nick Richards CHA
8%
9 Andre Drummond CHI
8%
10 Cody Martin CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier CHA 24.8 4.2 7.1
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.0 4.8 6.1
3 Coby White CHI 22.8 5.6 5.7
4 Miles Bridges CHA 21.9 7.0 3.9
5 Zach LaVine CHI 21.7 5.2 4.9
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.1 10.0 3.7
7 Brandon Miller CHA 15.9 3.6 2.6
8 P.J. Washington CHA 12.7 5.4 2.6
9 Alex Caruso CHI 12.6 4.1 3.1
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.1 4.1 2.0
11 Nick Richards CHA 10.3 8.2 1.3
12 Andre Drummond CHI 10.2 10.9 1.2
13 Cody Martin CHA 7.6 2.9 1.9
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 7.5 2.4 1.4
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.2 1.9 1.2
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.9 3.2 0.9
17 Ish Smith CHA 6.0 2.1 4.0
18 Jevon Carter CHI 6.0 1.7 1.4
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.5 2.8 1.8
20 James Bouknight CHA 3.6 1.1 0.6
21 Terry Taylor CHI 3.2 2.0 0.7
22 JT Thor CHA 2.9 1.9 0.5
23 Nate Mensah CHA 2.8 2.8 0.5
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.7 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.