NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
128–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY34411835128
PHI3025211692

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 32 29 3 2
Quentin Grimes 24 19 8 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 35 17 6 5
Miles McBride 15 15 1 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 17 14 2 3
OG Anunoby S 37 11 2 0
Josh Hart 30 10 15 6
Julius Randle S 30 8 7 5
Precious Achiuwa 13 5 3 0
Malachi Flynn 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 36 30 10 3
Tyrese Maxey S 36 27 4 9
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 31 15 7 1
Paul Reed 12 6 1 0
Tobias Harris S 24 5 3 4
Jaden Springer 15 3 1 1
Mo Bamba 5 2 2 1
Danuel House Jr. 22 2 4 1
Patrick Beverley 14 2 2 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 16 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
17%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
13%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 32.5 11.4 8.1
2 Julius Randle NY 26.5 8.9 3.6
3 Jalen Brunson NY 25.5 4.5 7.5
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.2 3.3 6.1
5 Tobias Harris PHI 19.8 6.3 4.3
6 OG Anunoby NY 14.9 4.0 2.9
7 Donte DiVincenzo NY 13.5 3.5 2.4
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.4 3.5 1.6
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.2 10.1 2.3
10 Josh Hart NY 7.8 6.1 2.4
11 Evan Fournier NY 7.0 2.0 0.8
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.8 3.0 2.4
13 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 6.8 2.9 1.3
14 Paul Reed PHI 5.8 4.7 1.7
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.5 3.9 1.0
16 Quentin Grimes NY 5.5 1.7 0.9
17 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.2 2.1 1.7
18 Malachi Flynn NY 4.2 1.9 2.2
19 Mo Bamba PHI 4.2 3.1 0.9
20 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.2 1.1 0.9
21 Jaden Springer PHI 3.2 1.3 1.0
22 Miles McBride NY 3.1 1.1 0.8
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 1.9 0.5
24 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.4 1.2 0.6
25 KJ Martin PHI 2.2 1.0 0.8
26 Taj Gibson NY 1.7 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.