NBA games

WSH @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
90–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2614193190
CLE36163230114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CLE
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyus Jones S 26 16 1 5
Bilal Coulibaly 36 15 7 1
Corey Kispert 20 13 1 1
Deni Avdija S 26 13 5 4
Kyle Kuzma S 25 9 2 2
Eugene Omoruyi 7 8 1 0
Delon Wright 16 7 2 2
Daniel Gafford S 24 4 4 1
Jordan Poole S 23 2 0 1
Jared Butler 5 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 26 26 2 4
Georges Niang 25 14 9 1
Jarrett Allen S 29 12 12 3
Caris LeVert 27 11 4 11
Sam Merrill 26 11 2 2
Max Strus S 30 9 5 3
Isaac Okoro S 22 8 4 0
Tristan Thompson 17 8 4 2
Craig Porter Jr. 12 7 4 4
Dean Wade S 22 6 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
4 Tyus Jones WSH
10%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
8 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
6%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.3 5.9 7.1
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.5 6.1 4.3
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 20.7 13.1 4.8
4 Caris LeVert CLE 19.4 3.9 5.2
5 Jordan Poole WSH 18.9 3.1 4.7
6 Tyus Jones WSH 16.7 3.8 6.3
7 Max Strus CLE 15.5 4.5 4.5
8 Isaac Okoro CLE 13.3 4.0 3.4
9 Daniel Gafford WSH 11.9 8.4 1.6
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.8 2.1 1.6
11 Deni Avdija WSH 11.1 6.5 3.4
12 Georges Niang CLE 9.6 3.2 1.5
13 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 9.0 4.1 4.7
14 Dean Wade CLE 8.4 5.2 1.4
15 Sam Merrill CLE 8.1 2.4 1.9
16 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.0 4.0 1.8
17 Ty Jerome CLE 6.9 2.4 3.8
18 Mike Muscala WSH 5.7 3.2 1.2
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 5.5 4.9 1.4
20 Delon Wright WSH 5.4 2.2 2.8
21 Jared Butler WSH 4.8 1.3 1.7
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.3 1.4 0.7
23 Danilo Gallinari WSH 3.9 2.1 0.6
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.9 1.7 0.7
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 2.1 0.6
26 Johnny Davis WSH 2.5 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.