NBA games

OKC @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
115–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC21263236115
BKN39362623124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home BKN
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 34 9 6
Jalen Williams S 36 20 5 5
Chet Holmgren S 35 17 6 3
Josh Giddey S 24 13 8 5
Luguentz Dort S 29 12 4 3
Cason Wallace 23 8 2 0
Vasilije Micic 12 6 0 3
Isaiah Joe 20 3 1 1
Aaron Wiggins 8 2 0 2
Lindy Waters III 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nic Claxton S 34 23 13 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 33 23 3 4
Cam Thomas 24 19 2 0
Mikal Bridges S 39 17 8 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 25 13 12 7
Dorian Finney-Smith S 22 9 3 2
Cameron Johnson S 32 9 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 9 6 2 2
Royce O'Neale 16 5 4 2
Lonnie Walker IV 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
9 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
36%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.7 6.4 6.9
2 Jalen Williams OKC 21.7 3.9 5.3
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.2 6.5 3.4
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 18.3 4.4 4.1
5 Cam Thomas BKN 16.6 2.4 2.5
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.4 3.9 2.3
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.8 5.9 4.9
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 12.5 3.7 6.0
9 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 12.2 3.0 1.9
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.9 4.3 1.9
11 Nic Claxton BKN 11.9 10.4 1.9
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.8 7.6 1.7
13 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.8 3.3 4.4
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.0 2.7 1.4
15 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.0 3.8 1.4
16 Royce O'Neale BKN 7.6 3.7 3.0
17 Cason Wallace OKC 6.5 2.1 1.8
18 Trendon Watford BKN 5.6 2.7 1.6
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 2.6 1.8
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.5 3.0 1.1
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.4 1.3 0.9
22 Harry Giles III BKN 4.0 2.0 0.6
23 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.9 1.5 3.0
24 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.7 3.0 1.2
25 Davis Bertans OKC 3.4 1.0 0.7
26 Tre Mann OKC 2.7 1.2 1.1
27 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.6 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.