NBA games

ATL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
116–150
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL24302933116
IND38403933150

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home IND
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 34 30 1 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 23 16 4 3
Trae Young S 28 13 2 6
Jalen Johnson S 29 12 8 3
Clint Capela S 19 9 7 0
Saddiq Bey S 30 9 4 2
Trent Forrest 14 6 2 2
Garrison Mathews 19 6 3 2
Bruno Fernando 7 6 2 0
Onyeka Okongwu 21 3 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 22 27 5 3
Bennedict Mathurin 18 18 3 4
Bruce Brown S 22 17 3 2
Aaron Nesmith S 22 15 2 3
Buddy Hield 17 11 3 1
Jalen Smith S 23 11 2 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 25 10 8 18
T.J. McConnell 23 10 3 10
Obi Toppin 22 9 3 2
Jarace Walker 12 8 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Clint Capela ATL
13%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
13%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Bruce Brown IND
11%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
7 Jalen Smith IND
8%
8 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Trae Young ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
17%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.5 3.8 10.8
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.7 5.0 5.3
3 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 20.0 3.3 3.7
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.0 4.8 13.3
5 Myles Turner IND 18.2 6.1 1.6
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.3 7.7 3.0
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.7 4.1 2.0
8 Clint Capela ATL 14.3 11.2 1.6
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.8 6.8 1.5
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.4 4.3 1.7
11 Buddy Hield IND 12.4 3.6 2.6
12 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.2 7.2 1.8
13 Bruce Brown IND 10.5 4.7 2.7
14 Obi Toppin IND 10.1 5.4 1.8
15 Jalen Smith IND 9.1 4.6 1.2
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.7 4.3 1.2
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.6 3.3 5.3
18 Jordan Nwora IND 5.3 2.1 1.0
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.0 1.6 0.8
20 Jarace Walker IND 3.9 1.7 1.2
21 Ben Sheppard IND 3.2 1.1 0.8
22 Trent Forrest ATL 3.0 1.6 1.3
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.7 1.8 0.5
24 Seth Lundy ATL 2.5 0.9 0.3
25 AJ Griffin ATL 2.2 0.8 0.4
26 Patty Mills ATL 2.1 0.8 0.6
27 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.1 1.2 0.4
28 James Johnson IND 1.8 0.7 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.