NBA games

UTAH @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
97–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH1525352297
BOS30413619126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home BOS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 23 17 5 5
Collin Sexton S 20 13 1 3
Keyonte George 20 12 4 1
John Collins S 22 12 11 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 12 11 1 0
Simone Fontecchio S 25 7 4 3
Luka Samanic 12 6 5 0
Kelly Olynyk 14 6 1 1
Ochai Agbaji 22 5 4 1
Walker Kessler 14 4 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 25 30 9 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 27 19 5 2
Jrue Holiday S 24 14 6 1
Jaylen Brown S 27 13 3 5
Sam Hauser 23 13 5 1
Derrick White S 26 10 7 3
Payton Pritchard 23 7 2 4
Oshae Brissett 17 6 3 2
Dalano Banton 6 5 1 1
Lamar Stevens 12 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
11%
7 John Collins UTAH
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
21%
Layup
54%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.7 7.7 5.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.9 6.0 5.3
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 22.5 7.8 2.2
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 21.8 7.6 2.7
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.7 3.5 4.9
6 Derrick White BOS 21.1 4.4 6.1
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.8 4.5 6.6
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.0 5.5 5.0
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 15.2 2.5 3.8
10 Keyonte George UTAH 13.6 2.9 4.5
11 John Collins UTAH 13.2 6.4 1.4
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.9 3.2 3.3
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 10.7 4.2 5.9
14 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.3 3.9 1.6
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.4 7.8 1.0
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.6 3.5 5.5
17 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 3.4 1.5
18 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.5 2.7 1.1
19 Luke Kornet BOS 6.2 3.9 1.0
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 4.5 0.7
21 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.2 5.4 0.9
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.7 2.4 0.6
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.3 2.4 0.6
24 Dalano Banton BOS 2.8 2.0 0.5
25 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.4 1.2 0.5
26 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.2 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.