NBA games

DEN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
130–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34362436130
GS33304420127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home GS
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 34 9 10
Aaron Gordon S 35 30 9 2
Jamal Murray S 32 25 2 6
Peyton Watson 19 19 5 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 8 4 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 8 3 4
Zeke Nnaji 6 2 3 1
Reggie Jackson 16 2 0 3
Christian Braun 18 2 0 1
Julian Strawther 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 30 4 6
Klay Thompson S 35 24 3 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 19 16 4 4
Dario Saric 23 13 7 6
Brandin Podziemski 28 13 2 5
Andrew Wiggins 27 11 3 0
Chris Paul S 30 9 4 6
Kevon Looney S 22 7 4 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 21 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Kuminga · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jonathan Kuminga makes 1-foot driving dunk (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
12%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
5 Klay Thompson GS
10%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Chris Paul GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
48%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.5 11.3 8.5
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.6 3.7 5.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.9 4.6 5.9
4 Klay Thompson GS 17.8 3.6 2.7
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.8 6.1 2.7
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.1 5.8 2.4
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 13.9 5.9 1.5
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.5 4.5 1.8
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.3 6.0 4.3
10 Chris Paul GS 10.8 3.6 6.4
11 Peyton Watson DEN 10.2 3.9 1.5
12 Draymond Green GS 9.6 5.0 4.9
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 9.0 6.9 1.4
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 8.9 2.9 2.4
15 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.7 2.1 3.8
16 Dario Saric GS 8.1 4.4 1.5
17 Christian Braun DEN 7.2 2.9 1.5
18 Julian Strawther DEN 5.6 1.8 1.0
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 5.1 1.9
20 Moses Moody GS 5.2 2.3 0.6
21 Justin Holiday DEN 5.1 1.5 1.4
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.3 4.7 0.6
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 2.8 0.8
24 Lester Quinones GS 2.8 1.0 0.8
25 Jerome Robinson GS 2.4 1.0 0.4
26 Braxton Key DEN 2.1 1.1 0.8
27 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.1 0.7 0.6
28 Cory Joseph GS 2.0 0.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.