NBA games

MIL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
125–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL38262932125
SA31283428121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home SA
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 40 44 14 7
Damian Lillard S 39 25 4 10
Khris Middleton S 15 12 3 5
Malik Beasley S 27 10 2 0
Brook Lopez S 33 9 4 1
MarJon Beauchamp 17 8 3 0
Pat Connaughton 28 7 6 0
Bobby Portis 21 5 4 0
Cameron Payne 15 5 1 4
Andre Jackson Jr. 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 35 34 6 4
Victor Wembanyama S 26 27 9 1
Tre Jones S 35 18 5 6
Keldon Johnson 30 14 10 1
Cedi Osman 28 13 2 5
Jeremy Sochan S 33 9 8 5
Dominick Barlow 15 6 1 4
Julian Champagnie S 21 0 0 2
Blake Wesley 15 0 1 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 3 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Malaki Branham SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
18%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.1 13.2 8.0
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.1 10.6 3.9
3 Damian Lillard MIL 26.9 4.3 6.7
4 Keldon Johnson SA 22.3 5.9 4.2
5 Khris Middleton MIL 21.8 4.6 6.6
6 Devin Vassell SA 19.8 4.0 3.8
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.7 7.6 1.8
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.2 5.9 3.4
9 Brook Lopez MIL 12.4 6.0 1.4
10 Malik Beasley MIL 11.6 3.8 1.6
11 Mamadi Diakite SA 11.2 4.7 1.0
12 Malaki Branham SA 10.9 3.5 3.3
13 Tre Jones SA 10.1 3.2 4.5
14 Julian Champagnie SA 6.7 2.5 1.0
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.3 2.3 2.1
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 6.1 2.5 1.1
17 Cameron Payne MIL 6.1 1.5 2.2
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.1 3.7 1.8
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.9 2.5 1.2
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.1 2.5 1.3
21 Chris Livingston MIL 3.8 1.7 0.7
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.8 1.6 2.1
23 Dominick Barlow SA 3.7 2.4 0.7
24 Devonte' Graham SA 3.6 1.3 1.5
25 AJ Green MIL 3.1 0.9 0.5
26 Robin Lopez MIL 2.9 1.5 0.6
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.8 1.7 0.7
28 Lindell Wigginton MIL 2.6 1.3 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.