NBA games

ORL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
135–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
ORL3025342998135
SAC27402427911138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home SAC
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 45 43 4 5
Jalen Suggs S 39 24 3 4
Caleb Houstan 31 15 2 1
Chuma Okeke 27 11 7 3
Anthony Black 25 9 2 4
Wendell Carter Jr. 21 9 7 3
Franz Wagner S 5 6 2 1
Goga Bitadze S 28 6 6 2
Gary Harris S 12 5 1 1
Trevelin Queen 38 5 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 46 37 3 9
Keegan Murray S 46 28 12 1
Domantas Sabonis S 46 22 23 12
Harrison Barnes S 36 17 3 1
De'Aaron Fox S 44 15 4 7
Trey Lyles 22 10 3 0
JaVale McGee 8 5 2 0
Kevin Huerter 18 2 7 2
Davion Mitchell 14 2 1 3
Chris Duarte S 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Chris Duarte SAC
9%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
10 Anthony Black ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
33%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.1 4.7 5.8
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.2 7.7 5.6
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.7 13.4 8.8
4 Franz Wagner ORL 24.2 6.5 5.0
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.9 4.5 1.9
6 Malik Monk SAC 13.7 3.0 5.6
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.1 3.3 2.5
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.8 2.7 1.4
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.1 5.7 1.9
10 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.7 6.5 1.2
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 4.6 1.3
12 Gary Harris ORL 7.5 2.0 1.8
13 Anthony Black ORL 7.5 3.6 2.2
14 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.0 2.5 1.7
15 Trey Lyles SAC 6.9 4.3 1.3
16 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.0 1.0 1.0
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.0 2.0 0.7
18 Chris Duarte SAC 4.9 2.4 1.1
19 Keon Ellis SAC 4.8 1.8 1.9
20 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 3.5 2.5 0.8
21 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.4 1.4 1.1
22 JaVale McGee SAC 3.3 1.9 0.8
23 Alex Len SAC 3.2 3.5 1.1
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.5 1.1 0.5
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.5 0.9 0.6
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 2.0 1.0 0.6
27 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.4 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.