NBA games

MIA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
110–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA25281938110
LAL1827222996

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home LAL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 28 21 6 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 39 16 0 8
Bam Adebayo S 38 15 7 5
Nikola Jovic S 28 15 8 1
Duncan Robinson 30 13 0 2
Josh Richardson 21 10 1 1
Kyle Lowry S 26 10 3 6
Kevin Love 28 10 14 3
Cole Swider 1 0 0 0
R.J. Hampton 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 43 29 17 6
Austin Reaves S 37 24 5 8
Max Christie 28 14 5 0
Christian Wood 24 13 8 3
LeBron James S 38 12 6 9
Jarred Vanderbilt 16 4 2 0
Taurean Prince S 29 0 5 2
Cam Reddish S 19 0 0 1
Jaxson Hayes 1 0 0 0
Jalen Hood-Schifino 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Lowry · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kyle Lowry makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
11%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
5 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
6 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
8%
7 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
8 Jamal Cain MIA
7%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
40%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 29.7 12.0 4.9
2 LeBron James LAL 26.2 7.5 8.8
3 Tyler Herro MIA 24.3 5.9 5.4
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.5 11.2 4.5
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.7 5.2 3.3
6 Austin Reaves LAL 17.2 4.0 5.5
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.6 3.2 3.7
8 Josh Richardson MIA 11.8 2.7 2.9
9 Taurean Prince LAL 11.8 3.6 2.8
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.8 4.0 1.4
11 Kevin Love MIA 11.3 6.3 2.6
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 11.1 3.1 3.7
13 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.1 2.6 5.5
14 Cam Reddish LAL 7.9 2.7 2.1
15 Jamal Cain MIA 7.1 3.1 1.0
16 Cole Swider MIA 6.9 1.6 1.1
17 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.9 4.0 1.5
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.8 3.6 1.8
19 Christian Wood LAL 5.3 3.6 1.3
20 Max Christie LAL 5.0 2.6 1.1
21 R.J. Hampton MIA 4.7 1.7 1.7
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.7 3.6 0.8
23 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.3 3.4 0.9
24 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.0 2.1 0.5
25 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.8 1.5 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.