NBA games

DET @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
148–154
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DET3335412910148
UTAH2640383416154

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home UTAH
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bojan Bogdanovic S 43 36 7 5
Cade Cunningham S 40 31 5 13
Alec Burks 34 27 4 1
Jalen Duren S 36 17 10 3
Jaden Ivey S 22 11 1 2
Isaiah Livers S 36 10 4 0
James Wiseman 17 8 9 0
Kevin Knox II 13 4 1 2
Ausar Thompson 11 2 3 1
Killian Hayes 13 2 4 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 38 36 6 3
Lauri Markkanen S 38 31 7 0
Collin Sexton S 30 25 2 5
John Collins S 24 17 4 3
Simone Fontecchio S 35 16 7 4
Kelly Olynyk 20 9 5 4
Walker Kessler 29 8 8 1
Keyonte George 23 5 2 2
Kris Dunn S 16 4 1 4
Ochai Agbaji 13 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Livers · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Isaiah Livers makes 6-foot two point shot (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
9%
7 John Collins UTAH
8%
8 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
9 Kevin Knox II DET
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.4 4.6 7.7
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.2 7.8 2.9
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.6 3.5 5.1
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.0 4.1 3.4
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.3 4.0 6.6
6 Jaden Ivey DET 17.7 5.4 4.3
7 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 16.0 2.6 4.2
8 Keyonte George UTAH 14.9 3.1 5.0
9 Jalen Duren DET 13.7 11.4 2.3
10 John Collins UTAH 13.3 6.8 1.4
11 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 11.6 3.7 1.5
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 10.6 4.8 6.2
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.1 8.1 1.2
14 Kris Dunn UTAH 8.7 3.6 5.7
15 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 8.4 2.8 1.2
16 James Wiseman DET 8.1 5.6 1.2
17 Alec Burks DET 8.1 2.1 1.2
18 Killian Hayes DET 8.0 3.4 3.9
19 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.9 3.9 0.9
20 Ausar Thompson DET 6.0 3.8 1.5
21 Kevin Knox II DET 5.9 1.8 0.8
22 Marcus Sasser DET 5.1 1.4 1.4
23 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.0 2.4 0.6
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.0 5.6 1.1
25 Isaiah Livers DET 4.8 2.1 1.3
26 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.1 2.6 0.7
27 Joe Harris DET 2.5 0.9 0.6
28 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 2.5 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.