NBA games

LAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
131–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC35353724131
PHX20314031122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home PHX
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 37 33 7 3
Kawhi Leonard S 40 30 8 3
James Harden S 36 22 5 11
Norman Powell 26 13 2 1
Terance Mann S 23 12 3 1
Russell Westbrook 18 6 5 2
Ivica Zubac S 27 6 3 2
Daniel Theis 20 6 3 1
Amir Coffey 13 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 35 2 6
Bradley Beal S 41 21 5 4
Eric Gordon 28 16 5 1
Bol Bol 19 14 5 2
Grayson Allen S 32 10 4 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 25 9 6 1
Chimezie Metu S 15 7 3 2
Keita Bates-Diop 21 5 0 3
Josh Okogie 16 5 2 1
Drew Eubanks 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Paul George LAC
12%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
7%
9 Chimezie Metu PHX
7%
10 James Harden LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
16%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 26.5 5.8 4.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.1 4.1 8.1
3 Paul George LAC 22.6 4.7 4.1
4 James Harden LAC 21.5 4.9 9.7
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 17.1 10.4 3.6
6 Bradley Beal PHX 16.7 3.5 3.7
7 Grayson Allen PHX 15.8 4.0 2.9
8 Norman Powell LAC 15.3 3.4 1.5
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.2 10.5 1.5
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.8 6.6 3.9
11 Eric Gordon PHX 11.5 2.3 1.8
12 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.3 4.5 1.2
13 Terance Mann LAC 7.8 3.0 1.5
14 Amir Coffey LAC 7.7 2.6 1.3
15 Daniel Theis LAC 7.1 2.8 0.8
16 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.8 3.1 3.0
17 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.4 4.6 1.1
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.3 3.8 0.8
19 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.2 2.5 1.0
20 Josh Okogie PHX 5.2 2.9 1.4
21 Brandon Boston LAC 4.6 1.4 0.6
22 Kobe Brown LAC 4.2 1.7 0.8
23 Yuta Watanabe PHX 4.0 1.4 0.7
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.2 0.9
25 Udoka Azubuike PHX 3.4 2.9 0.6
26 Bol Bol PHX 3.3 1.8 0.6
27 Bones Hyland LAC 3.2 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.