NBA games

POR @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
97–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2522272397
DAL35432424126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DAL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe 22 16 4 0
Anfernee Simons S 27 15 5 3
Matisse Thybulle 23 12 2 1
Jerami Grant S 20 10 1 2
Toumani Camara S 20 10 5 0
Ish Wainright 17 9 5 0
Scoot Henderson S 33 7 5 7
Skylar Mays 8 5 5 1
Malcolm Brogdon 17 5 2 2
Jabari Walker 17 4 5 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 31 41 6 5
Kyrie Irving S 29 29 9 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 14 3 0
Jaden Hardy 11 11 2 1
Josh Green S 27 8 4 1
Dwight Powell 13 5 3 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 5 0 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 8 5 4 1
Markieff Morris 12 3 3 1
A.J. Lawson 8 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes layup (Dereck Lively II assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
3 Jerami Grant POR
12%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Matisse Thybulle POR
8%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
31%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 35.3 7.2 10.1
2 Anfernee Simons POR 26.4 3.6 5.6
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.5 4.5 4.0
4 Jerami Grant POR 22.4 4.4 3.9
5 Scoot Henderson POR 18.6 3.9 6.2
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.6 4.1 2.3
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.0 4.9 3.6
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR 16.1 3.4 5.4
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 12.3 4.1 1.6
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 11.0 8.2 1.4
11 Jabari Walker POR 9.7 6.6 1.1
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.6 2.7 1.5
13 Toumani Camara POR 8.3 4.6 1.2
14 Duop Reath POR 8.0 3.7 0.9
15 Grant Williams DAL 7.7 4.0 1.8
16 Josh Green DAL 7.6 2.7 2.9
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.5 3.6 1.3
18 Skylar Mays POR 6.3 1.9 2.6
19 Dwight Powell DAL 5.8 4.2 1.1
20 Seth Curry DAL 5.4 1.8 0.9
21 Brandon Williams DAL 5.4 1.6 1.0
22 Kris Murray POR 4.7 2.7 0.8
23 Ibou Badji POR 4.2 4.3 0.6
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.1 2.5 1.0
25 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.6 1.2 0.5
26 Ish Wainright POR 3.1 1.4 0.6
27 Markieff Morris DAL 3.0 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.