NBA games

NO @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
117–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO27323325117
MIN24222535106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MIN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 29 27 4 6
CJ McCollum S 30 24 3 5
Brandon Ingram S 32 19 4 7
Herbert Jones S 37 16 3 2
Jose Alvarado 27 8 3 3
Larry Nance Jr. 22 8 9 2
Dyson Daniels 24 7 5 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 20 4 7 3
Jordan Hawkins 3 2 0 0
Naji Marshall 14 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 35 4 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 22 6 2
Jaden McDaniels S 33 11 0 2
Naz Reid 25 8 6 2
Mike Conley S 26 7 0 9
Rudy Gobert S 24 5 5 0
Shake Milton 3 5 0 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 4 0 1
Troy Brown Jr. 3 3 0 1
Jordan McLaughlin 17 3 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonas Valanciunas NO
12%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Zion Williamson NO
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 CJ McCollum NO
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
24%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.4 5.0 6.3
2 Brandon Ingram NO 24.1 4.5 5.7
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.7 6.9 4.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 21.7 9.7 3.1
5 CJ McCollum NO 19.2 4.1 4.9
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 16.1 10.6 2.4
7 Mike Conley MIN 12.2 2.5 5.7
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.9 10.9 1.7
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.7 3.0 1.5
10 Naz Reid MIN 11.2 4.0 1.7
11 Herbert Jones NO 8.7 2.7 1.7
12 Naji Marshall NO 7.7 2.6 2.4
13 Jose Alvarado NO 7.0 2.8 1.3
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.9 3.2 3.9
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.9 1.5 1.8
16 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.4 4.5 0.9
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.1 1.5 0.7
18 Dyson Daniels NO 4.9 2.1 1.3
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.9 2.8 0.8
20 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.7 1.2 0.9
21 Shake Milton MIN 3.6 0.8 1.1
22 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.4 1.4 1.2
23 Cody Zeller NO 2.9 2.3 0.9
24 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.5 1.2 1.0
25 Daishen Nix MIN 2.3 0.6 0.9
26 Josh Minott MIN 1.6 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.