NBA games

TOR @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
116–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR30323123116
MEM29192835111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MEM
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 33 26 3 5
Pascal Siakam S 30 24 7 0
Scottie Barnes S 40 20 2 8
Dennis Schroder 29 16 7 5
RJ Barrett S 33 14 7 3
Jakob Poeltl S 33 7 8 2
Gary Trent Jr. 21 5 1 0
Chris Boucher 13 4 8 2
Jontay Porter 7 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 35 28 8 9
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 24 4 0
Desmond Bane S 38 22 4 8
Ziaire Williams 18 18 6 0
Santi Aldama 22 7 8 3
Marcus Smart S 33 6 5 2
Xavier Tillman S 23 4 5 2
Luke Kennard 19 2 1 0
John Konchar 8 0 2 1
David Roddy 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes two point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Pascal Siakam TOR
9%
9 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
10 Bismack Biyombo MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
28%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 27.4 5.5 8.8
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 26.0 5.7 5.5
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 25.1 10.3 6.1
4 Desmond Bane MEM 24.5 5.0 5.4
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.4 5.3 2.0
6 RJ Barrett TOR 16.9 5.8 2.4
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 14.5 2.9 2.2
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 14.4 2.9 7.1
9 Marcus Smart MEM 13.5 2.8 4.2
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 13.2 3.3 2.4
11 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.5 8.7 2.8
12 Luke Kennard MEM 8.6 2.9 2.0
13 Derrick Rose MEM 8.5 2.3 4.1
14 Santi Aldama MEM 8.4 4.6 1.2
15 David Roddy MEM 7.8 2.9 1.8
16 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.6 6.1 1.2
17 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.3 2.6 1.9
18 John Konchar MEM 5.1 4.0 1.3
19 Chris Boucher TOR 4.9 3.1 0.6
20 Xavier Tillman MEM 4.9 4.0 1.1
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.7 2.1 1.1
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.6 1.3 0.7
23 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.