NBA games

BKN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
101–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN22282526101
HOU26233825112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home HOU
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 36 15 4 3
Cameron Johnson S 32 15 6 5
Royce O'Neale 30 13 4 3
Nic Claxton S 28 12 13 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 28 11 1 5
Trendon Watford 20 11 7 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 11 12 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 20 9 2 2
Cam Thomas 17 4 0 5
Armoni Brooks 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 34 30 8 4
Fred VanVleet S 36 21 6 10
Jalen Green S 31 14 8 4
Cam Whitmore 17 11 2 1
Amen Thompson 20 10 6 1
Jae'Sean Tate S 31 8 4 3
Jeff Green 17 8 0 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 7 12 0
Aaron Holiday 14 3 1 3
Reggie Bullock Jr. 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
3 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
11%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
7 Jalen Green HOU
9%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
9 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
24%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.1 9.5 5.7
2 Fred VanVleet HOU 21.5 3.8 8.9
3 Cam Thomas BKN 19.9 2.7 2.6
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.7 4.5 3.9
5 Jalen Green HOU 17.5 4.4 3.7
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.3 8.0 1.5
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.2 3.9 2.0
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 13.0 3.8 6.0
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.1 10.2 2.0
10 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.8 3.4 4.3
11 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.4 7.0 1.9
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.3 4.1 1.3
13 Royce O'Neale BKN 7.5 3.9 3.0
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.0 2.3 1.6
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.5 2.6 0.9
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.4 2.3 1.2
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.1 3.5 1.2
18 Amen Thompson HOU 5.5 3.1 1.5
19 Trendon Watford BKN 5.2 2.7 1.6
20 Armoni Brooks BKN 4.6 1.9 0.7
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.4 2.3 0.9
22 Harry Giles III BKN 4.1 2.1 0.5
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.6 1.4 0.9
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.4 2.6 1.0
25 Jock Landale HOU 3.3 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.