NBA games

CHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
100–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24312322100
NY26253530116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home NY
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 39 28 3 4
Coby White S 38 26 4 8
Andre Drummond S 30 13 16 0
Alex Caruso S 33 13 4 3
Ayo Dosunmu 31 7 4 4
Patrick Williams S 27 5 4 2
Terry Taylor 16 4 2 0
Jevon Carter 16 2 0 2
Dalen Terry 8 2 1 1
Julian Phillips 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 39 35 6 4
Jalen Brunson S 38 31 3 13
OG Anunoby S 34 11 8 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 25 11 5 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 37 10 20 1
Quentin Grimes 18 8 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 11 4 3 1
Miles McBride 10 3 0 0
Josh Hart 25 3 5 3
Jericho Sims 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
18%
2 Coby White CHI
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
9%
5 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Andre Drummond CHI
7%
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
7%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
10%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 4.6 7.5
2 Julius Randle NY 27.6 9.3 3.9
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.0 4.8 6.1
4 Coby White CHI 21.8 5.6 5.7
5 OG Anunoby NY 16.0 3.6 2.9
6 Patrick Williams CHI 13.5 3.9 2.2
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.3 4.3 2.1
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY 12.0 3.1 2.1
9 Alex Caruso CHI 11.0 3.8 2.9
10 Andre Drummond CHI 9.2 10.2 1.1
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 8.2 9.4 2.5
12 Josh Hart NY 7.8 5.7 2.3
13 Evan Fournier NY 7.3 2.0 0.9
14 Torrey Craig CHI 6.8 3.2 0.9
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.0 3.7 1.2
16 Jevon Carter CHI 5.6 1.6 1.2
17 Quentin Grimes NY 5.2 1.6 0.9
18 Adama Sanogo CHI 4.6 3.4 0.6
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.1 2.7 1.7
20 Miles McBride NY 2.9 0.9 0.8
21 Terry Taylor CHI 2.7 1.8 0.6
22 Julian Phillips CHI 2.7 1.4 0.6
23 Taj Gibson NY 1.7 1.9 0.4
24 Jericho Sims NY 1.5 1.1 0.3
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.