NBA games

OKC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
138–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC25344435138
ATL39374025141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home ATL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 33 13 8
Jalen Williams S 35 21 3 6
Cason Wallace 20 15 1 2
Luguentz Dort S 29 14 4 3
Aaron Wiggins 21 13 3 2
Chet Holmgren S 25 12 3 1
Josh Giddey S 22 9 3 4
Lindy Waters III 20 9 3 1
Isaiah Joe 18 9 1 1
Jaylin Williams 15 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 29 28 7 3
Trae Young S 34 24 4 11
Bogdan Bogdanovic 28 23 1 4
Dejounte Murray S 35 22 6 6
Clint Capela S 25 12 14 0
Onyeka Okongwu 22 11 7 0
Saddiq Bey S 36 10 8 2
Trent Forrest 14 6 2 2
Garrison Mathews 17 5 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Saddiq Bey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Clint Capela ATL
13%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
7 Trae Young ATL
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
10 Saddiq Bey ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
27%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 5.7 7.3
2 Trae Young ATL 27.0 3.9 12.0
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 22.3 4.9 5.2
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 20.4 3.9 3.5
5 Jalen Williams OKC 19.5 3.8 4.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.1 7.0 3.2
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 15.8 7.5 2.9
8 Josh Giddey OKC 15.0 6.4 5.0
9 Clint Capela ATL 14.3 10.5 1.7
10 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.5 7.4 1.8
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.3 6.6 1.4
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.2 4.2 1.7
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.8 2.6 1.2
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.1 2.1 1.9
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 2.6 1.7
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.8 2.8 0.9
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.5 1.6 0.7
18 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.8 1.5 2.9
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.7 3.3 1.3
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.4 1.1 0.8
21 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.4 3.3 0.5
22 Davis Bertans OKC 3.4 1.0 0.7
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.0 1.9 0.8
24 Tre Mann OKC 2.7 1.2 1.1
25 Patty Mills ATL 2.4 1.0 0.8
26 Seth Lundy ATL 2.4 0.9 0.4
27 Trent Forrest ATL 2.0 0.9 1.2
28 AJ Griffin ATL 2.0 0.7 0.5
29 Wesley Matthews ATL 1.9 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.